Election will be close – fierce battle over key swing voters

Everyone involved in political analysis has pretty much assumed that no matter who wins the 2024 presidential (and for that matter, congressional) elections, it will be close. The reasons are obvious: with the arguable exception of 2008, when the size of ’s victory over was almost certainly enhanced by the proximity of Election Day to a , every presidential contest since 1996 has been extremely competitive. That includes a surprisingly close outcome in 2020 featuring the same two candidates who will meet this year. More generally, the two major parties appear to be in steady equipoise when it comes to . And while there’s aways a fierce ongoing battle over swing voters, the than it was in much of the last century.