Trump will win – he is generating more enthusiasm with the key ‘decider’ voters
Clement, et.al., June 17 Scott Clement, Emily Guskin and Dan Balz June 17, 2024 at 6:00 a.m. EDT The 2024 ‘Deciders’: Who are they and what makes them tick? https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/06/17/deciders-2024-election-poll/
The lack of enthusiasm for the two major candidates is evident in other ways. Only 6 percent of Deciders say they would be “enthusiastic” if Biden were reelected while 15 percent say they would be “enthusiastic” with a Trump victory. More say they would feel at least “satisfied” with a Kennedy victory than say the same for Biden or Trump.
The survey did not ask people to pit Biden versus Trump in a hypothetical ballot test of the kind that many polls do. Instead, respondents were asked how likely they were to support each of the candidates separately. The results find 44 percent of Deciders say they are considering voting for Trump, compared with 38 percent saying the same for Biden. If Kennedy makes the ballot as an independent, 39 percent say they would consider voting for him. A far-smaller 10 percent of Deciders say they would “definitely” vote for Kennedy, which is closer to polls that ask a traditional vote choice question.