Trump is winning in all decisive swing states and leading all the polls.
The Economist, June 12 2024 Forecast predicts Donald Trump has a small but clear two-thirds lead in the 2024 election https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/the-economists-us-presidential-forecast-gives-joe-biden-a-34-chance-of-staving-off-a-second-trump-term-302171113.html
Mr. Biden trails in polling averages in all six plausibly decisive states, with deficits ranging from one to six percentage points. In the two where he is closest, Wisconsin and Michigan, Democratic candidates' margins have under-performed the final polls by an average of six percentage points during the past two elections. And even if he wins both, he would still need one more swing state to secure the 270 electoral votes necessary for re-election. "Our 2024 forecast deploys rigorous statistical methods, but ultimately reflects the data that go into it. Donald Trump leads polls nationally and in every swing state. Unless and until that changes, the model will make Trump at least a narrow favorite," said Dan Rosenheck, data editor.