Dialogue prevents Escalation

Conflicts around water are increasingly in the headlines: clashes between farmers and herders in the Horn of Africa, disputes over large dam projects in Central Asia and the Nile River Basin, violence in the Lake Chad region, and state fragility in Iraq and Iran (driven at least in part by water issues). These examples show some of the many ways that conflict can arise around water and how water can trigger or exacerbate conflict, acting as a “threat multiplier”.

Numerous policymakers from national governments, regional organisations and international institutions have underlined the risks associated with conflict due to water scarcity. Many have called for targeted action to counter the threat. The media, too, has picked up on this issue. Journalists point out – often in alarmist terms – the perceived direct links between water scarcity (and other climate change-related water challenges) and violence and instability. Some even suggest that water wars between countries are just around the corner, or that the world will soon be at war over water.

Think tanks and research institutions have intensified their investigations of the role of water in conflicts. This interest is driven by the realisation that climate change will likely aggravate this complex relationship. The widespread attention to water’s role in conflicts has led to growing concern, not least in the context of burgeoning migration.

However, the heightened – at times apocalyptic – concern often misses the bigger picture. Water and water-related challenges do not necessarily and inevitably lead to disagreements, conflicts and insecurity. The links between water and conflict are far more complex, diffuse and dependent on a number of intervening factors. It is this mix that determines whether, how and to what extent water-related risks indeed become security issues, for example, intensifying conflict or sparking destabilising migration.

That means action can be taken to reduce water-related risks. Well-considered and targeted actions can potentially avert conflicts, ensuring that the feared vicious cycle between water-related risks and conflict and insecurity does not emerge. We need to shape water challenges into virtuous cycles of water cooperation and water-based peacebuilding. This is where the WPS Partnership comes into