Disease turns the economy by disrupting mobility and supply chains, significantly impacting all elements of trade & manufacturing growth that are difficult to mitigate through policy – proven by COVID-19

COVID-19 pandemic went from being the most extensive “Black Swan event”1 to the most prominent “Grey Rhino event”,2 and its domino effect is increasingly being studied by economists. Fernando and McKibbin estimate economic losses in 24 industrial countries over seven scenarios. The worst-case scenario sees a sharp fall in consumption and investment, leading to a sharp fall in stock prices and a sharp fall in bond profits (18). Hofman’s analysis concludes that COVID-19 pandemic impedes labor mobility, thereby reducing productivity, disrupting supply chains, inhibiting exports, leading to increased uncertainty, and directly causing a further decline in trade and manufacturing growth, severely affecting the world economy (19). Appleby argues that while fiscal subsidies and loose monetary policies implemented by many governments, especially those of large countries, will increase the fiscal burden on countries and bring about global inflation, attempts by some countries to initiate new trade frictions on the pretext of epidemic prevention and control will increase the cost of international trade (20). Li et al. conclude that containing the spread of the disease should be prioritized over restoring economic activity by conducting a longitudinal survey of people’s expectations of epidemic control and maintaining positive economic growth (21). In addition, several scholars have explored the macroeconomic or industrial economies of different countries and regions separately, arguing that the epidemic had a significant deterrent effect on economic growth and caused powerful shocks to capital markets, labor markets, and people’s living standards and that the right policy mix could reasonably reduce losses in all areas (22–36).