Quantum incorporation is k2 naval primacy

Quantum technologies have the potential to bring profound new capabilities, enabling us to sense the insensible, transforming cybersecurity, and enabling us to solve problems we have never been able to solve before. In the defence and security environment, two applications will have particularly significant implications in the near- to mid-term. Firstly, quantum sensing. Quantum sensors have some promising military applications. For example, quantum sensors could be used to detect submarines and stealth aircraft, and quantum sensors could be used for Position, Navigation and Timing (PNT). Such ‘quantum PNT devices’ could be used as reliable inertial navigation systems, which enable navigation without the need for external references such as GPS. This would be a game-changing capability for underwater navigation on submarines, for instance, but also as a back-up navigation system for above-water platforms in case of GPS signal loss. The first quantum sensors are already commercially available, making it the most mature technology out of sensing, communications and computing. Moreover, for quantum communications and computing, the civilian sector is expected to drive developments forward, given the immense potential value they have for civil industry. However, for quantum sensing, potential applications such as quantum PNT and quantum radar are particularly interesting for the military. Therefore, it is up to the military to fund, support and guide research and development in this area to make these potential applications a reality. Secondly, the ‘quantum threat’ posed by quantum computing. As mentioned in the previous section, the factorisation of integers is one type of problem that quantum computers can solve particularly efficiently. Most of our digital infrastructure and basically anything we do online – whether that is video conferencing, sending e-mails or accessing our online bank account – is encrypted through cryptographic protocols based on the difficulty of solving these kinds of integer factorisation problems (e.g. the RSA algorithm). While practically usable quantum computers still need to be developed, the quantum algorithm to solve these problems and to decrypt our digital communication, i.e. Shor’s algorithm, has already been invented in 1994 and is waiting for a quantum computer capable of running it. While you might think that any graphic calculator would be able to solve this seemingly simple mathematical problem, in fact, the world’s fastest supercomputer would take the whole lifetime of the universe to solve it. A quantum computer, however, would be able to solve it in a couple of minutes. This is an urgent threat to society writ large but also specifically to the military, given the importance of secure communication and secure information for defence and security. To counter this threat, we will have to completely upgrade all our secure digital infrastructure using cryptography that is ‘quantum-resistant’, i.e. secure against both quantum and classical computers. One option would be to wait for quantum communication (QKD or quantum teleportation) to mature and use this quantum technology to protect against the other quantum technology. However, time is not on our side. Not only could quantum computing technology outpace quantum communication development, the threat is already present. With the prospect of future quantum computers, hackers could steal encrypted information today, store it and decrypt it in 10-15 years using a future quantum computer. The better option is to implement ‘Post-Quantum Cryptography’ (PQC), new classical (i.e. non-quantum) cryptographic algorithms that even quantum computers will not be able to solve. Currently, the US National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) is leading an international competition to select the PQC algorithm(s) to be standardised and adopted across the globe. The process started in 2016 and in July 2020 the NIST announced it had seven final candidates. We can expect the NIST to make its final selection for standardisation by early 2022 and establish actual standards by 2024 (source). Decision-makers across industries and within the military should pencil these dates in their diaries, start preparing for a big cybersecurity upgrade and make sure we hit the ground running. New advances in quantum technology research and development have the potential to bring exciting new capabilities to the military. Given the sizable interest and funding for quantum technologies coming from both civilian industry and governments, it is expected that the technology will mature and that new quantum applications will become available in the coming five to ten years. However, for Allied militaries to be able to actually reap the benefits of these new quantum technologies, it is essential that Allies proactively engage in this field and guide the development and adoption of the military applications of quantum technologies. This should include not just engaging with big technology companies, but specifically also with start-ups, universities and research institutes as these are vital for innovation in these new technologies. Allied militaries could bring significant added value to existing efforts in industry and academia by providing testing & validation infrastructure (test centres) and access to end-user military operators. Early experimentation with these technologies not only contributes to their further development, but also enables the military to become familiar with these technologies and their capabilities, which helps facilitate future adoption. Moreover, active participation in the quantum ecosystem increases the military’s understanding of the potential risks associated to quantum technologies, specifically within the cyber domain.