Quantum cyber K2 ASW (Anti-Submarine Warfare) capabilities – R&D key

NATO military capabilities enabled by next-generation quantum technologies are anticipated to offer unprecedented improvements in the following areas (Figure D.2): 1. Computing: Quantum computers are expected to provide orders of magnitude better computational capabilities, beyond the theoretical limit of classically designed computers for specific classes of analytical problems (e.g. optimisation and simulation). This computational leap will enable highly sophisticated approaches to encryption and decryption of codes, rendering current cryptographic methods obsolete. Sophisticated and rapid M&S will enable complex operational and organisational decision making, as well as new ways of developing hitherto undiscovered materials and biotechnologies, as well as next-generation AI (e.g. quantum neural networks for target and image identification problems). 2. Sensing: Quantum sensors will be many times more sensitive than current systems. This will support the development of counter-stealth and covert radars [92, 305]; magnetic, acoustic and gravity sensors with greatly increased ASW capabilities [90]; and, support the development of hitherto impractical low power high sensitivity airborne and spaced based sensors. Some example applications are for all-weather, day-night tactical (battlefield etc.) sensing (short-range, active/passive, covert, using EO/IR/THz/RF frequencies) for ISTAR, as well as strategic (long-range maritime, airspace, space) surveillance (active, RF). Quantum sensors are potentially more resistant to jamming. 3. PNT: Quantum effects support the development of very sensitive precision instruments for PNT. Such PNT technologies will enable operations in a GPS denied or difficult operational environment (e.g. long-duration submerged under-ice autonomous operations). In the short to medium term, rack-mounted units suitable for exploitation on larger mobile military systems (e.g. ships) will be available. 4. Communication & Cryptography: The development of unbreakable cryptography and the ability to decrypt encoded messages using current cryptographic methods will provide significant DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release: distribution unlimited. 72 Chapter D. Quantum Technologies challenges for current C4ISR systems. RED Within the 2020-2040 time-frame, the primary threat is from near-peer competitors, especially given the high level of mathematical sophistication and R&D investment required. The potential security implications due to the loss of useful encryption methods, the possible loss of air and underwater stealth, and a possible RED analytic/decision advantage enabled by quantum computing will challenge Alliance operations. Interoperability The use of next-generation quantum technologies will present significant interoperability challenges, primarily driven by differing rates of investment and, given the potentially dramatic improvements in sensing and communication capabilities, national security considerations. S&T Development Defence research areas of note are [46, 87]: • Sensing: TRL for quantum sensing is still quite low; however, several of the enabling technologies are advancing quite rapidly and may be available in the mid-term to address NATO ISR challenges. Improved sensors may be used to build georeferenced maps of gravitational and magnetic anomalies around the world. Near-term targeted investments in QT gravity, magnetic and EW sensors could demonstrate new military capabilities for tunnel surveys, magnetic anomaly detection and electromagnetic sensing. In the mid-term better QT sensors will enable these capabilities to be deployed in more challenging military environments such as space. In the long-term, the use of entanglement distribution networks may make distributed sensors thousands of times more precise than is currently available. • Positioning, Navigation and Timing (PNT): There are two fundamentally different approaches to PNT: one involving the transmission and receipt of external signals, such as GPS, and the other relying on the self-contained sensing of motion, such as provided by inertial systems. Since the future security environment anticipates a highly contested electromagnetic environment (jamming and spoofing), NATO will need to be prepared to operate in a GPS denied environment. Investment in QT will enhance resilience to these emerging vulnerabilities. Quantum technologies are expected to support the combination of ultra-precise time measurements with ultra-precise acceleration and angular rotation measurements (each of which uses a different quantum technology), to provide ultra-precise inertial navigation (and timing), which will be needed as GPS, and other signaldependent means become unavailable due to countermeasures (or inside structures). There are several competing concepts (solid-state nitrogen-vacancy, atom trapping in free space, cold atomic interferometry, etc.). Developing cold-atom QT will enable resilience to Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) denial through smaller QT clocks, and both gravity and magnetic sensing could be used to georeference using survey maps. It is expected that PNT will be first fielded through rack-mounted units (e.g. desktop computer size), suitable for exploitation on larger mobile military systems, e.g. ships. With continuous investments in the mid and long term, the systems are expected to reduce in size, weight, power and cost and ultimately provide navigation better than current GNSS performance, with greatly reduced reliance on external references. • Quantum Remote Sensing: Quantum remote sensing, such as quantum radar [91, 92, 92] has the potential to make stealth technologies obsolete, provide more accurate target identification, and allow covert detection and surveillance. There are two known approaches to Quantum-enhanced remote sensing: either by using quantum interferometry or by using quantum illumination. Both rely on using entangled photons and retaining one half of an entangled photon pair while sending the DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release: distribution unlimited. 73 other out (in a known direction) to interact with the environment. These sensors will enable much more accurate and sensitive measurement and the use of much lower power, for applications such as the detection and tracking of small, stealthy targets. Developments will rely on several quantum engineering capabilities, such as the controlled generation of individual entangled photon pairs, the

ability to retain one of each pair in isolation and to detect the returning photon for comparison with the idler. • Magnetic and Gravity Sensing: Precise measurement of the magnetic field are used by maritime patrol aircraft for the localisation of submarines, using MAD (magnetic anomaly detection) sensors. Current sensors are not suitable for use on small UAVs, due to size-weight-power constraints, but emerging quantum technologies may provide a solution. There are also special applications of gravity sensing that could be enabled by quantum technology, for specialised surveillance

applications such as underground structure detection (tunnels, bunkers) from an airborne platform. • Quantum Computing: Quantum computing research is being driven predominately by commercial

interests. While special-purpose quantum computing devices may be available in the mid-term, the development of a true general-purpose universal quantum computer, applicable to NATO problems, is likely a long way from being available. As per [46], experts estimated that such a quantum computer might be built within the next 15 to 50 years. In the medium term, the development of new quantum optimised algorithms and M&S for defence problems may be applied to special and limited BDAA problems. • Quantum Communications: Quantum communication capability (for ultra-secure channels) is an important research area, but it is being driven in many cases by strong commercial and intelligence interests. Use of near-term QT may enable the detection of an eavesdropper on a communication channel. Further development of quantum key distribution (QKD) and quantum post-quantum encryption options will provide the Alliance with superior encryption capabilities. In the mid-term investment should focus on QT optical communications for anti-eavesdropping capabilities and as a defence against jamming to enable the Alliance to understand vulnerabilities and opportunities. In the long term, a global-reach quantum entanglement distribution system should be developed to

support secure communications and other advanced QT applications. • Materials: Quantum simulations, which accurately model quantum many-body systems, offer the promise of predicting material behaviours. This capability will allow the explicit design and creation of new materials with specific desirable physical properties such as ultra-hard armour, superconductivity, high-temperature tolerance, etc.