AI is developing rapidly, bringing competition and flashpoints between the US and China. AI will be a main factor in global competition going forward

PREFACE Transnational threats interact in a complex system along with threats from state-actors, often reinforcing each other and creating compounding and cascading risks to U.S. national security. Increasing interconnections among countries also have created new opportunities for transnational interference and conflict. Several clear and direct challenges are the rapid development of technologies, the spread of repression beyond physical borders, the threats posed by transnational organized crime and terrorism, and the societal effects of international migration. CONTESTED SPACES Disruptive Technology New technologies—particularly in the fields of AI and biotechnology—are being developed and are proliferating at a rate that makes it challenging for companies and governments to shape norms regarding civil liberties, privacy, and ethics. The convergence of these emerging technologies is likely to create breakthroughs, which could lead to the rapid development of asymmetric threats—such as advanced UAVs—to U.S. interests and probably will help shape U.S. economic prosperity. • For example, stealth technology has significantly impacted conventional defense systems and has driven the efforts of varying countries to start a new round of research on detection systems and guided weapons. A key trend is the development of advanced materials with enhanced stealth properties with reduced reflection and absorption properties. Advances in AI and new machine learning models are moving AI into its industrial age, with potentially huge economic impacts for both winners and followers and unintended consequences— from rampant deepfakes and misinformation to the development of AI-generated computer viruses or new chemical weapons. Generative AI is a means for discovering and designing novel technologies and advanced system-level processes that could strengthen a country’s technological, economic, and broader strategic competitiveness. • China is pursuing AI for smart cities, mass surveillance, healthcare, drug discovery, and intelligent weapons platforms. Chinese AI firms are already world leaders in voice and image recognition, video analytics, and mass surveillance technologies. • PRC researchers have described the application of generative AI to drug discovery as “revolutionary.” On average, it takes more than 10 years and billions of dollars to develop a new drug. AI can make drug discovery faster and cheaper by using machine-learning models to predict how potential drugs might behave in the body and cut down on the need for painstaking lab work on dead-end compounds. [ 31 ] • Russia is using AI to create deepfakes and is developing the capability to fool experts. Individuals in warzones and unstable political environments may serve as some of the highest value targets for such deepfake malign influence. Innovators in synthetic biology probably will control new military and commercial applications and hold trillions of dollars in production capacity, including supply chains for products that vary from disease-resistant crop seeds to metals to pharmaceuticals. • Countries, such as China and the United States, that lead biotechnological breakthroughs in fields such as precision medicine, synthetic biology, big data, and biomimetic materials, will not only drive industry growth, but also international competition and will exert substantial influence over the global economy for generations.