Establishing US AI leadership ensures the stability of the multipolar world and the diffusion of AI globally

In pursuit of global domination or a relative improvement in their status, major powers including the USA, China and Russia, have been ramping up their investments on AI R&D to arrive at major breakthroughs. Several scholars argue that these nation-states are engaged in a ‘global AI race’ to utilise the technology to boost their economic productivity as well as military effectiveness to get ahead of the rest. For the USA, the prevailing superpower of the international system, AI offers the means to preserve or strengthen their existing position. In other words, AI can arguably compensate for the dent in its international perception due to a perceived decline of power following its misadventures in Afghanistan and the weaning away of economic dominance to China. Meanwhile, the latter seemingly views AI as a shot in the arm that can boost its national power to either supplant the USA or at least match its might to serve its own ambition to emerge as a global superpower in the next few decades. Russia’s perspective partially reflects the Chinese view with the country looking to employ AI in combination with asymmetric cyber tactics and space weapon technologies to enhance its existing military capabilities to gain an edge over the USA. Through AI, Russia hopes to get the USA to the negotiating table through which the country hopes to regain its past glory. The evolving trajectory of the global AI race and its manifestations on relative power capabilities can have a significant impact on the emerging world order. This study has drawn from historical experience to assess whether major powers in the international system today, the USA, China and Russia can harness the opportunities offered by AI to enhance their power status as well as goals envisioned under national interest. Each of these players have variations in their approaches as well as differing abilities as organisations to absorb the technology into the fundamental ways in which they operate. However, possession of advanced capabilities does not by itself guarantee power as an outcome or the elevation and subsequent sustainment of a superior power status. In the oft-quoted words of Russian President Vladimir Putin “AI comes with colossal opportunities, but also threats that are difficult to predict. Whoever becomes the leader in this sphere will become the ruler of the world.” ( Vincent, 2017). As evidenced by the history of technological change, a country can only rise to a superior power status when its institutions operate in synergy to tackle challenges from technological disruption, while utilising the opportunities. Such policy synergy has to be guided clearly from leadership, which also has to show willingness to change existing policies as required, to facilitate the adoption of AI ( Vijayakumar, 2023; Milner and Solstad, 2021). The nature of AI as an unique and novel kind of sociotechnical system including artificial human-like agents poses challenges to projecting its exact impact on the global order. A large part of whether the USA, China or Russia forge ahead and the ways in which the rise or fall these powers might come about is also contingent on whether the technology evolves from ANI to AGI or even ASI. Evolution to both AGI and/or ASI is likely to yield different projections given the geopolitical circumstances of the time. Such a breakthrough shall fundamentally alter the nature of the world order and of power as it is currently understood in IR. If economics is to shape the contours of the competition, China is likely to achieve its superpower ambitions and emerge as an even more powerful player in international affairs. The USA holds a unique advantage in terms of the wealth of technological knowledge it possesses as well as through its private ecosystem which is churning out AI innovations at an ever-increasing rate. The USA also has been consistently attracting the smartest minds from around the world, which can fuel its fast-paced development. The world system will likely continue in its multipolar configuration in this case with commercial AI diffusing fast to enable multiple poles of power to strengthen their position. If military innovation and its impact on war decides the outcome of the AI race, the USA and China are well-positioned to emerge on top. While the USA still has a substantial lead in capabilities and fighting experience compared to the Chinese, AI might slightly change the equation in China’s favour. China’s authoritarian system of governance, access to data, and smart policies such a civil-military fusion may further put the country at an advantage. In this regard, a notable trend within the current multipolar environment points to the evolution of nascent technology-based power blocs, one led by the Sino-Russian alliance and the other represented by the USA and its alliance. Growing strategic competition among the two power blocs could lead to cause the world order to move to a bipolar configuration in the coming decades. Similar to how World War II terminated Germany’s rise trajectory, the power potential of any of the contenders discussed in the article may be constrained by the outbreak of a major war that they involve themselves in. Ultimately, the winner(s) of the AI race may be those who adopt a prudent approach to the technology and make calculated moves towards using this unique AI moment to rise to the top.