No data poisoning impact—AI weeds out misinformation

AI can similarly enhance the ability to discriminate between real and false information, which is critical to preventing miscalculation or mistake in a crisis. A number of “close calls” have occurred throughout the years, in which nuclear weapons use was only avoided through human intervention based on uncertain information.22 In 1983, NATO undertook Command Post Exercise Able Archer to “practice command and staff procedures, with particular emphasis on the transition from conventional to non-conventional operations, including the use of nuclear weapons.”23 At the time, Soviet paranoia about a US nuclear first strike, with preparations under cover of a war game, was at an all-time high. When NATO began its Able Archer exercise, Soviet officials thought the exercise was real and put mobile intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) on a three-minute alert.24 The same year, the Soviet early warning computer system signaled five incoming US Minuteman ICBMs. The watch officer on duty, Soviet Lt. Col. Stanislav Petrov, did not report the incident, concluding that it must be a false alarm. If he had reported that US nuclear missiles were inbound, the Soviets would have followed their nuclear doctrine and retaliated with no time to double-check or negotiate with the United States.25 Petrov ultimately made the right call—as the Soviet early warning system had mistaken sun shining off clouds for incoming missiles.

Even after the end of the Cold War, in 1995, a Norwegian civilian research rocket launch was detected by the radar crews from the Russian Missile Attack Warning System (MAWS) and mistaken for a US Trident II submarine-launched ballistic missile. Command and control procedures were enacted, including notification of President Boris Yeltsin and activation of the Russian “cheget” system—essentially its nuclear football. Russian authorities eventually determined that this was not a nuclear-armed ballistic missile launch after reviewing satellite and other intelligence information.26

While these and other incidents were ultimately resolved successfully through the intervention of military experts and political leaders,27 they illustrate the dangers of imperfect systems that rely on human analysts with potentially inaccurate or inadequate information. As defense researcher Jaganath Sankaran argues, “future applications of AI to nuclear command and control should aspire to create an algorithm that could argue in the face of overwhelming fear of an impending attack that a nuclear launch isn’t happening.”28 Such an approach could both reduce the fog of war and reassure decision-makers that their course of action is correct in the face of uncertain information, either using nuclear weapons or refraining from it.

Although most nuclear-armed nations now use multiple systems to reduce the chances of a false positive warning signal, advancements in AI could significantly improve confidence in and functionality of these systems when integrated with human decision-making. AI tools could play a significant role in helping to identify patterns of life and reduce potential operator biases in conducting analysis. For instance, in order to be able to quickly discriminate between a country’s launch of a sounding/research rocket as opposed to an ICBM, which have very similar radar signatures, big data analytical tools could be used to collate and process massive amounts of electronic data—including signals, imagery, and open source collection—over time to identify patterns of behavior unique to each type of launch. Then, if there is an ambiguous or unexpected launch, these systems would be able to quickly determine whether or not the current circumstances more closely resemble one type of launch over the other—actually preventing future close calls or misinterpretations of data, as occurred in Able Archer in 1983. A human analyst would likely still need to make a final determination, but through the use of AI and data analytics, they would have a more accurate, timely, and complete picture on which to base any decisions.