Climate change will exacerbate geopolitical tensions and lead to widespread wars

July marked the initial deadline for the Pentagon and other federal agencies to draw up plans for potential climate risks, under an executive order by President Biden. Such plans are an essential first step, but the greater challenge for national security agencies is to continue to redirect their focus to changing climate conditions that pose a complex, two-pronged threat: social and political instability overseas and damage to U.S. infrastructure. Climate change is accelerating geopolitical tensions in many regions of core strategic interest to the United States. Increasingly destructive storms, rising seas and the melting Arctic are fueling global tensions, with nations bracing for mass migrations of displaced people and vying to take advantage of newly accessible natural resources. Changing climate patterns have become a catalyst for internal conflicts and international unrest, with severe droughts playing a role in setting the stage for the Syrian civil war and shrinking lake levels in Lake Chad contributing to widespread violence across the four African nations of the lake’s basin. Even in places where climate change has not sparked conflicts directly, it looms as a threat multiplier, exacerbating competition for food and water and worsening ethnic tensions. The Defense Department highlighted these risks earlier this year in its first climate and environmental security tabletop exercise, known as Elliptic Thunder. Set in East Africa and based on climate, economic and population forecasts, the multiagency exercise highlighted the extent to which climate change can worsen natural disasters and trigger regional instability, opening the door for strategic rivals and extremist groups to gain power. Closer to home, altered weather patterns and warming temperatures are battering military installations across the nation. From the devastating impacts of Hurricane Michael on Tyndall Air Force Base in Florida to the thawing and erosion in Alaska that is undermining the foundations of vital radar facilities, climate change is costing billions of dollars while degrading U.S. military readiness. More broadly, coastal surges, floods, heat waves and wildfires are exacting a toll on U.S. transportation networks and energy systems, threatening supply disruptions and increasing the cost and complexity of potential defense operations. As climate change becomes a central focus for national security policymakers, scientists are gaining new insights into the complex interconnections of Earth’s climate system. By collaborating with a range of stakeholders, they also are helping to develop actionable projections of climate impacts in specific regions. In one notable breakthrough, for example, a research team drew on the complex interactions of the ocean and atmosphere to demonstrate that changes in Arctic sea ice coverage can be predicted several years in advance. This is critical for U.S. security interests at a time when changing ocean circulation patterns and salinity are affecting how submarines maintain their stealthy features and track Russian and other activity in the warming Arctic. Russia is taking advantage of a warming climate to rearm in the Arctic, conducting high-profile military exercises in the region earlier this year and launching increasingly powerful icebreakers while President Vladimir Putin pledges to reinforce his nation’s presence in the region. Also looming are growing international tensions over trillions of dollars of natural resources that are becoming more accessible because of retreating sea ice. Looking further into the future, scientists are studying how storms are likely to shift later this century in ways that may lead to widespread flooding or lightning-induced wildfires in parts of North America and overseas regions. This type of research is critical for designing more resilient infrastructure and anticipating shifts in weather patterns that can displace vulnerable populations. To enhance understanding of how the climate is likely to change and the extent to which reductions in greenhouse gas emissions could lessen future impacts, the government must boost funding for science in ways that can support decision-makers. The research and analysis community needs more powerful supercomputers, next-generation observing tools such as advanced satellites and enhanced models of regional climate conditions, along with improvements to such cutting-edge techniques as artificial intelligence. Investments in climate research and analytics will more than pay for themselves by producing increasingly detailed and reliable projections of the climate threats the U.S. faces at the regional scale at which decisions are made and conflict arises. This will produce economic benefits as well, with private firms already generating jobs that provide climate risk services to many sectors of the economy, from real estate to banking.