Biden wins now but it’ll be close – a policy miscalculation like the aff could reverse momentum

[Sara, “Trump-Biden 2024 Polls: Here’s Who’s Winning In The 6 States That Will Decide The Election”, ]

Biden and Trump are in a closely contested rematch, with Trump leading Biden by 0.7 points nationally in a head-to-head contest, according to the Real Clear Politics’ average. Voters are historically disengaged in this year’s election, according to some polls, including an April NBC survey showing the share of voters who say they have high interest in this year’s contest reached a 20-year low. It’s unclear whether Trump’s conviction last week in Manhattan will significantly impact voter sentiment, though a string of polls that overlapped with the guilty verdict show Biden leading, despite most surveys prior to Trump’s conviction showing him with a slight edge. More than half of all independent voters want Trump to drop his 2024 campaign after the Manhattan jury found him guilty of 34 felony counts of falsifying business records, according to an ABC News/Ipsos poll conducted Friday and Saturday that also found 49% of Americans want Trump to end his campaign. The results are largely the same as before his conviction, however. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s independent presidential bid is another wildcard in the race, with some polls showing him drawing more votes from Biden and others showing him hurting Trump more.