Biden is headed towards a win – conviction changed the calculus and momentum

[Ivana, “What polls say about Trump’s conviction and the 2024 presidential race”, ]

Zoom out: However, polls have also shown voters shifting toward Biden in matchups before and after a hypothetical conviction.

A Marquette Law School poll released last week asked half its sample of voters how they'd vote if Trump was acquitted, and found Trump beat Biden by 6 points.

The other half of the sample was asked how they'd vote if Trump was found guilty, and found Biden beat Trump by 4 points.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll released last month found that Biden gained two points in a Trump matchup in which Trump was convicted of a crime, but gained six points if Trump was serving prison time as a result.

State of play: Polling from before the conviction found that Trump led Biden in five out of six key swing states, with the gains largely attributable to Trump's headway with young, Black and Hispanic voters.

Trump's dependence on these voters from outside his traditional MAGA base could make him particularly vulnerable in this moment, the New York Times reported.

These Trump supporters who come from traditionally Democratic constituencies are especially likely to revert to voting Democrat in the event of a conviction, per the Times.

Zoom in: A New York Times/Siena College poll of six battleground states in October found that about 7% of Trump's supporters said they'd vote for Biden if Trump were found guilty.

The same poll found that 21% of young Trump supporters said they'd back Biden in the case of a guilty verdict. Only 2% of Trump's 65-and-older supporter said the same, per the Times.

Among Black voters who support Trump, 27% said they'd flip to Biden in the event of a conviction, while only 5% of Trump's white supporters said the same.