Trump wins – leading in all swing states

[Scott,, Zachary Donini, Ryan Gest, Scott Tranter is the director of data science at Decision Desk HQ, where Ryan Gest is a data science and digital content fellow and Zachary Donnini is a data science fellow. The Hill, “GOP trifecta? Introducing the Decision Desk HQ 2024 Election Forecast Model”, ]

Welcome to Decision Desk HQ’s 2024 Election Forecast Model, a powerful tool for in-depth analysis and predictions for the upcoming presidential, Senate and House races.

In 2020 and 2022, our models correctly forecasted more than 90 percent of outcomes across more than 1,000 contested elections. This model builds on the framework of those models, incorporating methodological improvements to deliver even more accurate and comprehensive insights.

The model considers hundreds of data points including polling, economic indicators, national and local political trends, candidate characteristics and campaign finance information, all processed through advanced machine-learning algorithms. More details on our methodology can be found here.

In addition to our quantitative forecasts, Decision Desk HQ provides qualitative ratings for each race, categorizing them as “Solid,” “Likely,” “Leans” or “Tossup” for each party. These ratings allow readers to track significant shifts in the electoral landscape easily, as changes in these categories can signal important developments in key races. Our qualitative ratings also enable direct comparisons between our forecast and the expert analyses provided by respected outlets such as the Cook Political Report, Split Ticket and Sabato’s Crystal Ball.

Less than six months before Election Day, President Joe Biden’s reelection prospects are in worse shape than many Democrats would like them to be. Many fundamentals of the race, including the incumbency advantage, campaign fundraising levels and many macroeconomic factors, generally favor Biden. Yet both national and swing state polls give former President Donald Trump a clear edge.

According to the latest national polling average from Decision Desk HQ/The Hill, Trump leads Joe Biden by 1.0 percentage points across 712 national polls — a significant pro-Trump shift from Biden’s 4.5-point popular vote victory margin in 2020. And if the election were held today, swing state polling suggests Trump would achieve a decisive victory in the Electoral College, flipping all six of the states that Biden won by less than 3 points in 2020: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.