Can’t predict the 2024 election – RFK is a spoiler that makes predictions impossible

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The other X-factor in the race is the aforementioned Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Although he entered the race as a Democrat, Kennedy is now running as an independent and polls show that he could potentially play the role of a third party spoiler. This is something that Kennedy himself has rejected, though some in the White House reportedly believe Kennedy "poses a real threat to President Joe Biden's reelection chances," Forbes said. However, while most analysts believe RFK Jr.'s candidacy was most likely to be a problem for Biden, polling shows that it may be Trump who gets the short end of the stick; a recent NBC News poll found that Kennedy would likely siphon more voters away from Trump than Biden, as the aforementioned RMG and New York Times polls that also showed Kennedy pulling more from Trump voters. So while the White House and Democrats are worried about Kennedy, it appears the Trump team may be equally worried, as the former president "may regret RFK Jr.'s campaign," Business Insider said. Notably, in NBC's poll that had Biden winning, the president's margin of victory shrinks to 39% for Biden over 37% for Trump, while Kennedy pulls in 13%, meaning the chance for RFK Jr. to play spoiler is still very much alive. Other candidates also remain in the race, including Cornel West, Marianne Williamson and Jill Stein, but are unlikely to generate a challenge to either Biden or Trump.