No US-China war – interdependence and deterrence check

While Ferguson agreed with Allison’s argument that China and the U.S. are headed in the trajectory of war, he did say we have to be careful of the “Paul Kennedy Syndrome.” Kennedy, a professor at Yale, implied in his famous The Rise and Fall of Great Powers that West Germany and Japan were on the verge of overtaking the United States. Obviously that did not happen. If we apply similar skepticism to the U.S.-China scenario, we can see that the U.S. still maintains the world’s most powerful military by a huge margin, and that global interdependence is higher than ever. China and the U.S. need each other and China would not necessarily win a war. Furthermore, Chinese leaders do not want war and will take steps to prevent war from being necessary. It is possible that with Trump’s potential retreat from world, their takeover might become easier. Ferguson reported that in this respect, Chinese leaders feel as if history is going their way. (Although Trump’s latest action in Syria could signal that the “retreat” may not be happening). Ferguson concluded on a more positive note by saying that China’s leaders are perhaps the most history-minded in the world. They study history and they apply it. This makes them far less likely to be trigger happy and instead points them towards a strategy where war is far less likely. Conclusion: As China overtakes the United States’ geopolitical and economic supremacy, it is poised to become the world’s number one power. Thucydides warned us that this dynamic is a trap that often leads to war. However, with careful study from Professors like Graham Allison and Niall Ferguson, and leadership from politicians like Ambassador Samantha Power, we may be to apply history and find a peaceful way forward. You can watch the full conversation at Harvard’s John F. Kennedy Jr. Forum here.