AI innovation is key to solve super volcanoes, asteroids, and pandemics --- extinction.

Mark Montgomery, Robert Nielson, and Garrett Lindemann, “Plausible Scenarios For Artificial Intelligence in Preventing Catastrophes,” KYield, 12-23-2014, https://kyieldos.com/2014/12/23/plausible-scenarios-for-artificial-intelligence-in-preventing-catastrophes/

Super Volcanoes

A very high probability event that should consume greater attention, super volcano eruptions occur about every 50,000 years. GCR highlights the Toba eruption in Indonesia approximately 75,000 years ago, which may be the closest humanity has come to extinction. The primary risk from super eruptions is airborne particulates that can cause a rapid decline in global temperatures, estimated to have been 5–15 C after the Toba event. [4]

While it appears that a super-eruption contains a low level of existential risk to the human race, a catastrophic event is almost certain and would likely exceed all previous disasters, followed by massive loss of life and economic collapse, reduced only by the level of preventative measures taken in advance. While preparation and alert systems have much improved since my co-workers and I observed the eruption of Mt. St. Helens from Paradise on Mt. Rainier the morning of May 18th, 1980, it is quite clear that the world is simply not prepared for one of the larger super-eruptions that will undoubtedly occur. [5] [6]

The economic contagion observed in recent events such as the 9/11 terrorists attacks, the global financial crises, the Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami, the current Syrian Civil War, and the ongoing Ebola Epidemic in West Africa serve as reasonable real-world benchmarks from which to make projections for much larger events, such as a super-eruption or asteroid. It is not alarmist to state that we are woefully unprepared and need to employ AI to increase the probability for preserving our species and others. The creation and colonization of highly adaptive outposts in space designed with the intent of sustainability would therefore seem prudent policy best served with the assistance of AI.

The role of AI in mitigating the risks associated with super volcanoes include accelerated research, more accurate forecasting, increased modeling for preparation and mitigation of damage, accelerating discovery of systems for surviving super eruptions, and to assist in recovery. These tasks require ultra high scale data analytics to deal with complexities far beyond the ability of humans to process within circumstantially dictated time windows, and are too critical to be dependent upon a few individuals, thus requiring highly adaptive AI across distributed networks involving large numbers of interconnected deep earth and deep sea sensors, linking individuals, teams, and organizations. [7] Machine learning has the ability to accelerate all critical functions, including identifying and analyzing preventative measures with algorithms designed to discover and model scenario consequences.

Asteroids are similar to super volcanoes from an AI perspective, both requiring effective discovery and preparation, which while ongoing and improving could benefit from AI augmentation. Any future preventive endeavors may require cognitive robotics working in extremely hostile environments for humans where real time communications could be restricted. Warnings may be followed swiftly by catastrophic events—hence, preparation is critical, and if viewed as optional, we do so at our own peril.

Pandemics and Healthcare Economics

Among the greatest impending known risks to humans are biological contagions, due to large populations in urban environments that have become reliant on direct public interaction, regional travel by public transportation, and continuous international air travel. Antibiotic-resistant bacteria and viruses in combination with large mobile populations pose a serious short-term threat to humanity and the global economy, particularly from an emergent mutation resistant to pre-existing immunity or drugs.

“For example, if a new strain of avian flu were to spread globally through the air travel network that connects the world’s major cities, 3 billion people could potentially be exposed to the virus within a short span of time.” – Global Risk Economic Report 2014, World Economic Forum (WEF). [8]

Either general AI or knowledge work augmented with AI could be a decisive factor in preventing and mitigating a future global pandemic, which has the potential capacity to dwarf even a nuclear war in terms of short-term casualties. Estimates vary depending on strain, but a severe pandemic could claim 20-30% of the global population compared to 8-14% in a nuclear war, though aftermath from either could be as horrific.

Productivity in life science research is poor due to inherent physical risks for patients as well as non-physical influences such as cultural, regulatory, and financial that can increase systemic, corporate, and patient risk. Healthcare cost is among the leading global risks due to cost transference to government. The WEF, for example, cites ‘Fiscal Crisis in Key Economies’ as the leading risk in 2014. Other than poor governance that allows otherwise preventable crises to occur, healthcare costs are arguably the world’s most severe curable ongoing crisis, impacting all else, including pandemics.

Priority uses of AI for pandemics and healthcare: [9]

Accelerated R&D throughout life science ecosystem, closing patient/lab gap.

Advanced modeling scenarios for optimizing prevention, care, and costs.

Regulatory process including machine learning and predictive modeling.

Precision healthcare tailored to each person; more direct and automated. [10]

Predictive analytics for patient care, disease prevention, and economics.

Cognitive computing for diagnostics, patient care, and economics.

Augmentation for patients and knowledge workers worldwide.