Support at a record high— referendum would succeed if held now, economic issues are make or break.

MONTREAL — Optimism within the Quebec sovereignty movement has not been this high in years. The Parti Québécois suffered its worst results in half a century in last October’s provincial elections. It helps to explain why the latest Léger survey has pro-independence Quebecers abuzz. The poll, published in Le Devoir, found that 38 percent of Quebec voters would vote in favor of sovereignty if a referendum were held on the issue. Half of respondents (51 percent) still side against sovereignty (and separation from Canada), while another 10 percent were unsure. — Recent history: Polls on Quebec independence have shown steady backing for sovereignty, ranging from the high 20s to the low 30s. Last June, Léger put support at 32 percent, up from 27 percent in December 2020. The modest but significant hike is welcome news to pro-independence Quebecers, but there’s a catch. — Behind the headline: The Léger data also exposed a major challenge for the sovereignty movement: Young voters no longer drive it as they did 30 and 40 years ago. Almost half of the voters between the ages of 18 and 34 are against sovereignty; 31 percent are in favor. It’s probably worth noting the last Quebec referendum was in 1995, before many in this cohort were born. Among voters aged 35 to 54, 34 percent were in favor and 55 percent against. Only among voters over 55 — those who lived through the constitutional battles of the 1980s and 1990s — do we find a statistical tie: Fifty percent against, 45 percent in favor. — The takeaway: Sovereigntists have to work to keep the dream of independence alive. If young voters do not join the cause, support for sovereignty could fizzle as the movement loses torch-carrying baby boomers by attrition.