Democratic candidates are ahead in multiple battleground states

Senate Democrats in key battleground states have consistently performed better than President Biden in polls, fueling speculation that November could see the highest levels of ticket-splitting in years.

Voting for different parties on the same ticket has become increasingly rare in the U.S. amid growing political polarization. While some down-ballot Democrats are polling better than the president now, observers caution the gap between them will likely shrink as the election draws closer.

Still, the relative polling strength of Democratic Senate candidates in states like Montana, Ohio and Pennsylvania has suggested that at least some voters will back them while supporting Donald Trump or a non-Biden presidential candidate.

“This is more split-ticket voting than we would traditionally see, but there’s also a higher undecided factor than we would normally see. I think that plays into it,” said Matt Taglia, the senior director of Emerson College Polling. “The dynamics of this race are just so different from previous elections, even from 2020.”

As much as split-ticket voting regularly gets discussed during election seasons, it has grown increasingly rare.

In 1972, President Nixon defeated Democrat George McGovern in a landslide, winning 49 states. But 190 House districts elected a Democratic representative that year, according to Pew Research Center.

In 1988, nearly 150 districts voted one way for president and another for House. But in 2012, that number was only 26.

The 2016 elections marked the first time in modern history that every state voted for the same party in the presidential race as their Senate race. The feat nearly repeated in 2020, when Maine was the only state to split its presidential and Senate votes, backing Biden but also reelecting Sen. Susan Collins (R).

With five months still to go before Election Day 2024, polling indicates a possible return to at least somewhat higher split-ticketing.

Although polls have mostly shown Biden trailing Trump in key battleground states, one source of optimism for Democrats has been the consistent polling advantage of their Senate candidates.

Democratic candidates in most of the key states that will determine which party controls the Senate — Arizona, Michigan, Montana, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — are ahead of their Republican opponents by at least a couple of points, according to the polling average from Decision Desk HQ/The Hill.

Pollsters across various polling organizations are seeing this, while finding Biden behind by a few points.

A CBS News/YouGov poll from last month of Arizona showed Biden down by 5 points and Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.), the likely Democratic nominee for Senate, ahead of his likely GOP opponent, Kari Lake, by more than 10.

While not as dramatic of a difference, an Emerson poll of the state from late April showed Trump leading by 4 points but Lake trailing by 2. An Emerson poll of Pennsylvania showed Trump ahead by 4 points, but Sen. Bob Casey (D) leading Republican David McCormick by the same amount.

A New York Times/Siena College poll released last month showed Biden with a 12-point deficit in Nevada; if true, a concerning sign for his prospects there. But the same poll showed Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) ahead of her likely challenger, Republican Sam Brown, by 2.

The differences vary somewhat by state to state and poll to poll, but the disparity has been consistent for months. The dynamic is also being seen in North Carolina, where Biden trails Trump by a few points, but Democratic gubernatorial candidate Josh Stein and GOP candidate Mark Robinson are neck and neck.