Democratic victory in special elections creating momentum for Congressional

Across the country, Democrats are winning special elections and overperforming in elections they have predictably lost. And it's fueling optimism among Democrats looking at a challenging election year for both the White House and Congress. "Polls don't vote. People vote. And that's what's been happening," says Democratic Rep. Jim McGovern, a veteran lawmaker from Massachusetts who has served in both the minority and the majority. Despite what the polls say, "people have been voting, and they've been voting Democratic. I feel really good about November – and not just about the president. I feel really good about us taking back the House." Experts caution that a special election win in New York – particularly a district Biden won in 2020, albeit when the district was drawn to be more Democratic-friendly – does not a national movement make. The president still has abysmally low approval ratings, and national and battleground state polls show him in a tight race with his likely fall opponent, former President Donald Trump. "I think that Democrats would be making a lot of assumptions if they, A, took their great joy from this result as some sort of bellwether for November or, B, thought there was some kind of playbook that came out of it" to win races in districts in other parts of the country, says Syracuse University professor Grant Reeher. In a 2022 election season when Democrats did surprisingly well, they fared poorly in blue New York, Reeher notes, losing four congressional seats to Republicans. Tuesday's special election could just be the state returning to its mostly Democratic roots, he says. And the immigration issue – which Democrats are trying to seize as their own, focusing on House Republicans' refusal to consider a bipartisan border security package negotiated by the Senate – remains a vulnerability for both Biden and congressional Democrats. But the numbers that matter – performances in contests ranging from mayoral and state legislative races to presidential primaries – give still-nervous Democrats reason to hope. In November, Democrats flipped the Virginia state House, gained seats in the New Jersey state legislature, held onto the governorship in deep red Kentucky, and won city council and school board races across the country. Last month, Democrats picked up a critical state House seat in Orlando, Florida – an important indicator of political mood in the I-4 corridor, home to many Hispanics. Nationally, Democrats are outpacing Republicans in voter registration, going from trailing the GOP in September (28% Republican registration and 24% Democratic registration) to leading in January (27% Democratic registration versus 25% Republican registration), . Tuesday was a big night for Democrats as well. Not only did Suozzi shrink the GOP's already whisper-thin majority in the House with his win in New York, but Democrat Jim Prokopiak ensured Democratic control of Pennsylvania’s state House with a blowout over Republican Candace Cabanas in a race predicted to be much closer. The win was the sixth special election victory for Democrats in Pennsylvania, allowing them to retain control of a chamber they flipped in 2022.