Supply chain disruptions cause extinction.

This definition of “national security” is broader than just the defense industry or military-related efforts; it also could encompass the very ability of a nation to ensure economic well-being, public health, and protection of a nation's key infrastructure. Supply chain disruptions cause general economic disruption and key commodity shortages, which then in turn can, in fact, drive aggressive national behavior and international instability. And ironically, this reactive aggressive national behavior can happen even if the health of a national economy itself depends upon continued international economic interdependence. Indeed, this very interdependence can create vulnerabilities. So a systematic effort, cutting across agencies and public and private sectors, could be one way to ensure these vulnerabilities are understood and mitigated. Supply Chain Disruption and Conflict Dispersed supply chains develop because actors find it's economically advantageous to seek the least-expensive and most-productive sources of supply. These dispersed chains develop for good reasons, but they create complicated interdependencies whose risks and vulnerabilities are sometimes not even understood, let alone mitigated. While the reasons for creating these chains lie largely with private interest, the effects of disruption—which can come from sources ranging from malign human action to natural disaster—are rarely localized. When shortages occur in one industry, the disruptions in one area nearly always spill into adjacent companies and sectors. Whole economies feel the impact, not isolated actors. The impact on vulnerable populations may be particularly dire. Supply chain disruptions do not just create higher prices and shortages among high-end consumer products, such as cars. They also affect more-basic commodities such as generic drugs or energy, increasing the cost of living and the provision of basic needs.

This kind of disruption can create instability more generally, promoting conditions for conflict between and within nations. For the most part, nations try to maintain access to markets and resources by peaceful means such as stockpiling, direct investment in partner nations, and use of other financial incentives. However, there is no guarantee that such competition will remain peaceful. As affluent nations and individuals can find ways to mitigate shortages, they may create blocs of “haves” and “have nots,” where some actors have enough but others cannot meet basic needs. “Haves” may find ways to more directly change distribution, most likely at the expense of other “have nots.” Or “have” nations may try to forcefully safeguard what they have gained and work to exclude competitors. In all these cases, the actors are facing shortages, occasioned by interdependence, and seeking security for themselves in ways that actually promote wider international systemic instability. Escalation of Conflict In some cases, supply chain disruptions can have an even more-direct impact than general disruption, causing shortages of commodities the nation must have to ensure national security. This kind of disruption can go beyond matters of justice, equity, and general prosperity to threatening a nation's very ability to defend itself and look after its citizens. Some examples are pharmaceuticals and personal protective equipment, energy, food, raw materials used in manufacturing, and semiconductors used in multiple different systems including military applications. Such shortages can make the need for a national government to act more dire and immediate and thus raise the risk of conflict. In some cases, particular types of raw materials only exist in certain places, so shifting to more-secure sources isn't even possible.