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Recession coming now—multiple indicators

Sor 24 (Jennifer Sor, reporter for Markets Insider. “3 signs the US economy is nearing a recession have flashed in the last week, SocGen says” 6/5/2024. Accessed 6/19/2024. https://www.businessinsider.com/recession-outlook-hard-landing-economy-growth-spending-socgen-albert-edwards-2024-6) wtk

The US economy is edging precariously close to a recession, and it's flashed a handful of warning signs in just the last week that suggest a downturn is on the horizon, according to Société Générale.

The European bank has warned of a recession to hit the US over the last year, despite many investors and economists remaining bullish on a soft-landing.

According to the bank's chief global strategist, Albert Edwards, stocks and the economy have flashed a number of red flags, with three worrying data points appearing over the past week.

"Even if Armageddon looms, I guarantee the investment air will be filled with the sound of bulls singing their soft-landing siren songs," Edwards said in a recent note to clients.

He pointed to three signs the economy is nearing a downturn.

1. Economic growth expectations have been cut

Atlanta Fed economists cut their expectations for second quarter GDP growth in half over the last week, down from 3.4% to 1.8% growth.

"US growth expectations have crashed in the wake of recent weaker-than-expected data," Edwards said."As GDP growth disintegrates, equity investors should be worried … that recession might yet arrive after all."

2. Manufacturing activity has slowed

Manufacturing activity, a "key indicator" of economic growth, is also slowing, Edwards said. New manufacturing orders contracted in May, and overall manufacturing activity contracted for the 18th time over the last 18 months, according to the Institute for Supply Management.

"Although many may dismiss the importance of the manufacturing sector for the overall economy, it is undeniable that overall GDP ebbs and flows closely with it. No surprise then that fear of recession is resurfacing," Edwards wrote.

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