Pandemics are extinction-level-events

These exponential “super-spreading events”[2] should not be considered a ‘normal’ escalation from an endemic biological incident within a single country (i.e., ratcheted upward from a lesser level CBRNE incident), nor one where a pandemic expands beyond a single nation’s borders. One of the main constructs of emergency management is that it is designed to be jurisdictionally limited within a single nation. Emergency management is defensive and supports the homeland . While aid and advice can be provided from one nation to another, the incident is still managed within a single country or component subjurisdictions. Governmental missions which are predominately offensive, such as interventions, interdictions, interruptions, and isolations, are single-entity missions generally to be delegated to law enforcement entities (including Public Health Officers) domestically and the nation’s military and national defense agencies, internationally. In many countries, including the United States, military and national defense agencies were utilized domestically as part of these offensive missions.[3]

In the United States, the definition of what is an emergency, or a disaster, is very fluid. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) has an incident typing system, where five is the lowest in terms of resources required and one is the highest, as shown in Figure 1:

Emergency management has as one of its standards to “ratchet up and down” the resource support needed, based on the incident type. For example, when a Type 4 incident is still scaling up – meaning not yet under control or expanding – additional resources should be requested as if the incident could grow to a Type 3. While COVID-19 may have started in the United States as a small outbreak in Washington state on January 20, 2020, it expanded exponentially across the entire country in a matter of weeks. And at the same time, the virus spread worldwide.[4] The size and scope moved the incident typing off the scale[5]; there were no additional resources available anywhere, nor was there proper planning in place for this level of incident. There are hazards and threats for which emergency management cannot plan, organize, equip, train, and exercise because they are too complex. One way to quantify them is to describe them as Type 0 – Extinction Level Events.[6]

When the phrase ‘Extinction-Level Event’[7] is mentioned, thoughts turn towards world-changing events – such as asteroid strikes, nuclear war, and even climate change/global warming. None of those tragedies have their response and recovery missions coordinated through their national emergency management process. There is a cap to the maximum of maximums of the capabilities and capacities for national and jurisdictional emergency management agencies and departments – as well as the concepts of the Incident Command System within the field of emergency management itself. When a disaster expands[8] beyond the capability of the internal sub-jurisdictions within a nation, that jurisdiction usually requests assistance upward, all the way to the national level for support. When the nation itself needs support beyond its own capabilities, it can choose to reach out to partner nations, intergovernmental organizations, or non-governmental organizations for additional support (i.e., NATO, the United Nations, the Red Cross/Red Crescent National Societies across the globe, etc.). When all the nations are impacted at the same time by the same incident – and there is no one unimpacted left to help – that constitutes a worldwide catastrophe. Can any such incident be managed within a single nation’s borders? Maybe, but not by or through emergency management, since the decisions about all aspects of the disaster phase cycle missions of Preparedness/Prevention/Protection, Response, Recovery, and Mitigation are a matter of national security and economic development.[9]