Trade escalation prevents cooperative governance of AI---extinction

China, on the other hand, has placed enormous investment in both AI and infrastructure, not just in China, but throughout the world. Although China and the United States enjoyed the benefits of their interdependence previously, by attempting to isolate China from the rest of the world, the United States will cause harm to all, especially to itself. It is critical at this juncture that worldwide cooperation in the development of standards for both 5G technology and responsible AI be developed so that all companies and governments in all countries can participate. Global interconnection is not only an important business goal, it also will drastically improve conditions for underdeveloped countries as it opens new markets and improves economic conditions there. However, the future of AI is now at risk due to the split between the United States and China.

B. Technological Bifurcation

The U.S. feud with Huawei risks bifurcating 5G's rollout into two distinct blocs-nations that embrace Chinese 5G and those that reject it wholesale-hampering global connectivity and hurting the bottom lines of companies forced to choose. Technology consultant Stephanie Hare says the lack of trust between the world's No. 1 and No. 2 economies means every other country is being forced to [*599] choose sides, based on its own interests. "There can be no sitting on the fence here."

The decoupling of the United States and China not only has the potential to create two separate 5G technologies and infrastructures, it increases the risk of two separate internets, two separate AI tracks, and two separate systems of trade. If a country in the EU built out its telecommunication infrastructure as part of the Chinese BRI, U.S. made devices would not be compatible there locking residents of those countries into Chinese tech and out of U.S. tech. With Africa and South America signing on to the BRI, these markets could be closed off permanently to the United States With respect to 5G, both Nokia and Ericsson in Europe have considered setting up two separate units, one for the United States and one for China. There is also some concern that the internet will be split into two - one for China and one for the United States, again forcing all other countries to choose. Preventing China from accessing components and technology in the United States could actually speed up China's innovation resulting in "a bifurcation into a Chinese-led internet and a non-Chinese internet [*600] led by America." China could "start developing its own protocols, its own standards for domain name creation and transfer, its own entry points and distribution systems, and most importantly, its own rules and regulations[,]" which would then be adopted by nations running on a Chinese infrastructure. If the United States denies U.S. tech companies access to China, AI will be developing off two different sets of data - one that the United States can access and the other that only China can access - resulting in algorithms that will not work across markets. "According to a McKinsey Global Institute study, [countries] that promote open data sources and data sharing are the ones most likely to see AI advances." The trade war is increasing the risk that technological developments will not be interoperable based on the bifurcation of U.S. and Chinese systems.

As a result of the current U.S. administration's policy of isolating China, "the world may well be headed towards a system where most commercially significant countries are pressed to align with one or another of these giants." The trade war has already resulted in Chinese companies developing their own operating systems and semiconductors for their telecommunication devices. Not only does this provide Chinese companies [*601] the ability to withstand a protracted trade war longer than the United States would be able to, it also gives China additional products to market worldwide. On the other hand, U.S. tech companies are reeling from the trade war. It is estimated that export controls put in place by the Trump Administration could cause a loss of $ 14 to $ 56 billion in sales and 18,000 to 74,000 jobs over the next five years in the United States. Collaboration among academics is already decreasing. While the more technologically advanced nations will have a choice, underdeveloped countries will most likely align with the Chinese.

The United States' desire to isolate China will also impact the setting of global standards for 5G technology. This will have the most serious effect on the United States itself because, although it was a leader in 4G technology, it will have no influence in 5G standards due to the lack of industry there specializing in 5G network equipment. Because Huawei has the most [*602] patents for 5G technology, it is seeking to be the leader in developing standards. China's White Paper on AI Standardization indicates that China considers AI standards to be the key to "seizing a new round of technological dominance."

C. Need for Coordinated Development, Cooperation, and Standards

As indicated above, advancements in AI in the United States have been funded and guided primarily by private industry advancing commercial pursuits. Recently, academics and NGOs have begun forming initiatives to support the responsible development of AI. Because the United States has reduced government support for technological innovation, it is falling behind in being able to influence 5G and AI standards in international organizations. The proposed 2020 budget contained reductions in almost every category of R&D, including an 11% reduction in the budget for [*603] the National Science Foundation's funding of research. The rationale is that "there is no need for an AI moonshot, and that minimizing government interference is the best way to make sure the technology flourishes." As China expands its global influence, the United States is retreating due to the trade war and misaligned policies.

A widespread 5G infrastructure is necessary for AI implementation in various fields, such as smart cities, self-driving cars, smart factories, and medical equipment. Due to the diminution of U.S. dominance in the telecommunications industry, the United States is no longer able to drive standards allowing for software and hardware interchangeability. As a result, standards will be set by companies and governments in the EU and China. Previous generations of telecommunications companies faced this problem when the United States failed to adopt standards after the deregulation of the telecommunications industry in 1996. Although the EU adopted the GSM mobile network standard in 1987 and China in 1997, the United States permitted individual carriers to determine their own standard resulting in carriers with noninterchangeable systems. As a consequence, [*604] a device configured on one system would not work on another. Lucent, for example, a former U.S. telecom communication equipment provider, chose CDMA and UMTS radio technology on which to build its equipment, neither of which were used in Europe. Additionally, the United States has wagered on mmWaves for its 5G spectrum allocation as opposed to China and the EU, who have opted to focus on mid-range bands further reducing the opportunity for interchangeability of components and access to the market abroad. Although higher frequencies result in faster speed and lower latency, they also are limited to much shorter distances and cannot pass through solid objects requiring a much denser base station installation than those that use lower frequencies. As a result, countries and municipalities around the world looking to save costs on infrastructure would choose Chinese equipment designed for these midrange frequencies, which most likely can be built on or adjacent to existing towers. The United States will be forced to build an entirely new, highly dense infrastructure for 5G costing billions for which it has no plans to fund again relying on private industry.

Another important area that is being advanced without input from the United States is in cybersecurity. Huawei has already launched a Cyber Security Center in Brussels that seeks to create cybersecurity standards for telecommunications equipment. Huawei's Deputy Chair, Ken Hu, indicated that standards need to be adopted and agreed upon because global supply chains consist of components from all over the world with different [*605] or no standards. Locating the center in Brussels indicates a willingness to work with EU authorities who are already considered to have an advanced understanding of the issues based on their creation of the General Data Protection Regulation. Rather than pursuing collaboration with the United States, Huawei has announced a strategic alliance with the Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology (MIPT) in Russia. This newly formed coalition will share strategy and work together to form AI technologies. What is especially concerning is the United States' lack of cybersecurity innovations. According to two dozen national security experts, "America's computers are almost completely defenseless." Consequently, this failure puts the United States at great risk in a cyber war.

[*606] The movement towards protectionism is effectively preventing the United States from being able to influence the development and standards for AI as well. The EU has already drafted a plan for the ethical development of AI. China's prominence in 5G hardware, and its current installation in China and much of the EU, is permitting it to influence standards in this area for those who continue to adopt their technology. China has already begun working on an international set of global standards on ethical norms, which if adopted globally, will likely reflect Chinese culture and ideology rather than the West's. By withdrawing from international organizations and attempting to thwart rather than guide the responsible development of AI, we risk AI being created without appropriate safeguards for humanity. Without cooperation, tech companies in the United States and China will be competing with one another making it unlikely that they will devote time and resources to the coordinated development of AI for social good. The U.S. withdrawal from the WTO and its multilateral [*607] agreements, along with its institution of a trade war with China, will reduce its influence in the world leaving a large gap, which China will be only too happy to fill. China's model of a government-controlled internet is already taking root in Vietnam and Thailand. It is already apparent that there is no global consensus on what ethical AI looks like. Labeled AI for good, trustworthy AI, responsible AI, or AI governance, all acknowledge the transformative value of AI, but differ in how to address the risks involved. Developing standards in isolation will not work because of the global nature of technology today. While a global consensus may be difficult to come by, it will be devastating for the United States to have no role in this discussion.

VI. Conclusion

In recognition of their differing cultures and ideologies, one of the most important recommendations that came out of the 2013 Sunnyland Summit between President Obama and President Xi was the admonition "Do not allow bilateral differences and suspicions [between the United States and China] to derail cooperation."

The Joint Working Group is concerned, however, that developments in bilateral relations could impede the ability of the two countries to work together to meet common global challenges, thus imperiling each country's long-run prosperity and security. Consequently, it is the responsibility of the leaderships of the two countries to step back from the current dynamic of US-China relations and begin an earnest search for a balance of interests that could underpin a long-term relationship that is largely cooperative.

This prophetic statement acknowledges the need for international cooperation. The report goes on to warn of the danger of becoming "strategic ... enemies" resulting in "devoting increasing resources to unnecessary and counter-productive geopolitical and military competition." The report seems to predict that the failure of these two powers to work together will result in what we are seeing today: the trade war, currency destabilization, market uncertainty, and the potential for a cyber war, if [*608] not an actual war. The United States is wholly unprepared to deal with war in cyberspace due to the lack of appropriate cybersecurity protections and investment in technology. No border wall will be a defense against a cyber war. The United States is playing a game of catch-up, but rather than supporting its own tech industry it is seeking to slow down China's progress. The United States cannot afford to miss out on AI's potential to deliver $ 13 trillion to the global economy. The U.S.-instigated trade war not only threatens the global economy and endangers democracy, it will likely cause an innovation winter - hindering future developments in AI. There is a very real danger that should the United States and China continue with this decoupling, the result could be a bifurcated internet, the development of technology on two divergent tracks, and a 5G infrastructure with non-interchangeable components requiring the rest of the world to choose a side. Although the damage from the trade war is likely to be long-term, if the United States does not learn how to exist in a world with a new balance of power, it will suffer the most from the coming Innovation Winter.