Grid vulnerabilities undermine nuclear deterrence and risk war with Russia or China

The United States faces imminent danger from a devastating cyber-attack against its electric power grid. This attack is more probable because a Revolution in Military Affairs has weakened the deterrence traditionally associated with conventional and nuclear weapons, changed the escalation ladder, and consequently lowered the barrier to intensive conflict between the superpowers.

A new form of cyber-attack against the electric grid has emerged in the form of a "non-shooting" war between Nation States. This type of attack might take place between superpowers as something that is short of use of conventional or nuclear force.

There is a popular myth that cyber weapons can be made "by any teenager in a basement using software downloaded from the web." This is not at all true if we consider the target. It is not everyone who can write the specific code needed to disable an electric power grid. Apart from the programming skills, they need to have superb knowledge of the grid itself, how it works, and the specific equipment being made the target of the attack. They must understand the operational procedures of the specific facility being targeted.

Russia is the best prepared to defend against cyber-attack and use cyber as a strategic weapon. During an extreme international crisis, a massive Russian cyber-attack against the entire U.S. electric grid prior to the outbreak of conventional or nuclear war is likely, to deter or defeat the U.S. with "gray-zone aggression" instead of or prior to outbreak of a "real shooting war": consistent with Russia's military doctrine that Cyber Warfare is an unprecedented and decisive Revolution in Military Affairs.

China is likely to make a massive cyber-attack against the entire U.S. electric grid prior to the outbreak of conventional or nuclear war, or during an extreme international crisis, to deter or defeat the U.S. with "gray-zone aggression" instead of or prior to outbreak of a "real shooting war": consistent with China's military doctrine that Cyber Warfare is an unprecedented and decisive Revolution in Military Affairs.

Iran has a moderate chance of inflicting temporary but substantial damage to the electric grid, primarily in its supporting information processing operations. It is unlikely that Iran would be capable of cyber-attacking the entire electric power grid of the United States.

The Non-State Actor does not have the capabilities of a superpower, or of any Nation State. It lacks the engineering skills, money, and infrastructure to develop a cyber-weapon as complex and sophisticated as Stuxnet. Cyber-attacks by Non-State Actors against the entire U.S. electric grid are an unlikely event. Cyber-attacks against regional (or city) electric grids are more probable but would be unsophisticated and primitive.

For U.S. relations with both Russia and China, the emergence of viable paths to cyber- attacks against critical infrastructure as a new strategic weapon has lowered the barriers to conflict, and presents a heightened danger with the potential to disrupt the long-standing balancing calculus dependent upon nuclear deterrence.