The increase in global attacks and recent statements show an attack is likely

Observable trends add weight to these officials’ concerns. Most important is the growing number of both successful and foiled attacks. According to the Global Terrorism Index, deaths from terrorism increased by 22 percent from 2022 to 2023. This year has already seen the two large ISIS-K attacks in Iran and Russia. And were it not for the outstanding work of German intelligence and police, the list of successful acts of terrorism in the past few months would have been longer. German authorities arrested foreign nationals who were allegedly planning attacks on the Cologne Cathedral late last year and the Swedish parliament building in Stockholm in March.

Foiled plots inside the United States should be the ultimate wake-up call. In April 2022, the Justice Department charged an Iranian government official based in Tehran with attempting to hire a hit man to assassinate former U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton. The following month, the FBI reported that it had thwarted the plans of an Iraqi national living in Ohio to smuggle four people across the southern border to assassinate former President George W. Bush. Most recently, the FBI—as part of the Biden administration’s effort to convince Congress to reauthorize Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act—shared declassified intelligence with Politico showing that the agency had stopped a plot to attack critical infrastructure in the United States last fall. According to the FBI, the organizer inside the United States was in regular contact with a foreign terrorist group, had identified specific targets, and had made sufficient preparations to put the plan into motion.

A final piece of the puzzle is the string of recent statements by terrorist groups calling for attacks. Many pegged their threats to the events of October 7. Shortly after that day’s attack, al Qaeda issued a statement urging Muslims around the world to seize a “once in a lifetime” opportunity to commit acts of violence in support of Hamas’s cause. In January, al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) released videos calling for attacks on commercial flights worldwide and on targets in New York City. And in March, during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, an ISIS-K spokesperson called on individuals to carry out lone-wolf attacks on Christians and Jews in the United States, Europe, and Israel. When terrorist groups make explicit threats to the United States, Washington should listen. It is not uncommon for adversaries to say precisely what they are going to do—as bin Laden did before 9/11.