Risks are increasing, both in groups seeking nukes and the ability to access materials

Fifteen years have passed since the WMD Commission’s report was completed, and there has been no known terrorist acquisition of a nuclear weapon, improvised nuclear device or radiological dispersal device. Still, Al Qaeda showed interest in nuclear terrorism to include conducting inert-material implosion testing in Afghanistan, undertaking efforts to steal materials and recruit scientists (Albright 2010; Mowatt-Larssen 2020, 2010). On August 4, 2014, the Doel 4 nuclear power plant in Belgium was shut down automatically as a result of an act of sabotage by an unidentified organization. Notwithstanding the many changes in the international security environment, the risk of nuclear terrorism remains significant.

With the demise of the Soviet Union, the U.S. government instituted very effective cooperative programs with the Russian Federation to dismantle Soviet weapons and weapon infrastructure and improve the security of components and materials of concern. Programs (among them U.S.-FSU science cooperation, the DOE Nuclear Cities Initiative, the U.S. Civilian Research and Development Foundation, and the “Lab to Lab” program) also were established to engage Soviet weapon scientists in non-weapon work, with the intent of reducing the potential their skills might be procured by nefarious entities (National Research Council 1996; Rotblatt 1998). In addition, the United States and Russia completed the “Megatons to Megawatts” program, which eliminated 500 metric tons of HEU by blending it down to low-enriched uranium fuel for civilian nuclear reactors.

Much has changed in the strategic environment since these successful programs were put in place, especially with respect to Russia’s relationship with the United States. Today there are other nuclear-armed states that could experience instability and governance challenges that would potentially result in a loss of control of nuclear weapons, fissile materials, or expertise. Possible examples include economic collapse in Pakistan or the fall of the Kim regime in North Korea. As the breakup of the Soviet Union demonstrated, such events can be sudden and difficult to predict.

Among the disturbing changes to the global security landscape is that terrorist organizations have proliferated, with a growing number of terrorists movements operating globally and transnationally. Political polarization within the United States is also on the rise with “home grown” extremist groups developing new capabilities and working together for shared goals. This will be discussed in more detail in Chapter 3. New technologies, such as remotely piloted and autonomous air, ground, and sea vehicles; digital fire-control systems for small arms; and machine learning algorithms that enable image recognition and empower deep fakes and other forms of misinformation, disinformation, and mal-information (MDM) have provided terrorist groups with new capabilities.