Grid failures cause extinction.

In the industrial world, when a switch is flipped, we take for granted that it will produce light, boot a computer, illuminate a stadium or activate a power plant. We know, of course, that power losses can and do occur. Many of us have lit candles during a thunderstorm or brought out extra blankets when a blizzard takes down transmission lines. As of this writing, the most populated state in the United States, California, is experiencing rolling blackouts.1 Yet even in prolonged power outages, we expect that electricity will be restored and, consequently, life will return to normal. Perhaps we need ask, however, what if power cannot be restored in a timely manner? Concern is growing that in the not-too-distant future our electricity supply could be irreparably compromised by a cyber attack. The issue when considering a systemic grid failure of this nature is twofold: how did we reach a point where something so critical to routine life now presents an existential threat, and what can we do to mitigate the risk of a catastrophic grid attack?

This article posits that the emergence of cyber attacks on industrial control systems, as a means of war or criminal menace, have reached a level of sophistication capable of crippling those systems. This article argues that a new grid security policy paradigm is required to thwart catastrophic grid failure – a paradigm that recognises the inextricable link between commercial power generation and national security. In section 5, seven policy recommendations are outlined that may, in part, mitigate a future where grid attacks pose existential risk to nations and their citizenry. Those recommendations are: first, develop a comprehensive insurance programme to minimise the financial risk of grid disruption; second, train more cybersecurity professionals with particular expertise in industrial control systems; third, institute a federally mandated information-sharing programme that is centralised under United States Cyber Command; fourth, subsidise and/or incentivise cybersecurity protections for small to mid-size utilities; fifth, provide university grants for grid security research; sixth, integrate new technologies with an eye towards securing the grid; and, lastly, formulate clear rules of engagement for a military response to grid disruption.

The purpose of this article is to provide the reader with an introduction to this complex topic. It is the aim of the author to give orientation to this issue and its many branches in the hope that better understanding will animate further curiosity and, ultimately, positive action on the part of the reader. Although many skilled and earnest people work tirelessly to prevent a grid failure scenario, it is essential that more be added to their ranks each day. Advisors, engineers, regulators, private counsel to power generators, and many others who play roles in electric power production are crucial to this subject. So, while this article provides entrée to the topic of grid security, its long-term objective is to spur action by the entire energy-related community. In the end, no one is immune to consequences of grid failure and, therefore, everyone is responsible, in part, for promoting grid integrity.2 In this regard, lawyers who represent various actors in the energy sector are going to be faced with questions and potential legal risks of a magnitude that they have never experienced before.

1.2. Turning the power back on in a powerless world

‘Black start’, not to be confused with the term ‘blackout’, is the name given to the process of restoring an electric grid to operation without relying on the external electric power transmission network to recover from a total or partial shutdown.3 At first glance, this description is unremarkable, but it implies a disturbing catch-22 – how might one restore power if the entire external transmission network is compromised?

If an electric disruption occurs at a household level, some homes may be equipped with a modest gasoline generator to temporarily restore power. If a hospital loses power, it will almost invariably be resupplied by automatic, industrial-scale generators. These micro considerations hardly give anyone pause; they are hiccups on a stormy night or a snowy day. In other words, their ‘black start’ is a quick and effective process for restoring power. But what happens, at a macro level, when an electric grid supplying power to large portions of the United States goes black, or worse, what happens if all of the United States’ electric grids go down simultaneously?4 In that scenario, how might enough non-grid power be harnessed and transmitted to turn the United States’ lights back on? Moreover, how might such a catastrophe occur in the first place? Perhaps the more ominous question is not how, but whether or not we can survive such circumstances if they persist in the long term.

The United States electric grid (‘the grid’) is the ‘largest interconnected machine’ in the world.5 It consists of more than 7000 power plants, 55,000 substations, 160,000 miles of high-voltage transmission lines and millions of low-voltage distribution lines.6 The scale and complexity of the grid in the context of the modern digital world are beyond comprehension because within it are innumerable industrial control systems; incalculable connections to digital networks; millions, if not billions, of analogue or digital sensors; many thousands of human actors; and trillions of lines of programming code.7 Further complexifying the grid is that it is comprised of generations of technologies, stitched together in ways that are not inherently secure in a world of cyber threats.8 The vastness of the grid makes security of it challenging. Likewise, the vastness of the grid makes the opportunities for intrusion seemingly infinite.

By any measure, grid failure will unleash a parade of horrors. Stores would close, food scarcity would follow, communication would cease, garbage would pile up, planes would be grounded, clean water would become a luxury, service stations would yield no fuel, hospitals would eventually go dark, financial transactions would stop, and this is only the tip of the iceberg – in a prolonged grid failure social chaos would reign, once-eradicated diseases would re-emerge and, increasingly, hope of returning to a normal life would fade.9 The notion of complete grid failure, once relegated to science fiction comics or James Bond movies, is now not only possible but also one of the most pressing national security threats today.10