The problem is not workers and adding more of them won’t solve – their estimations wildly overstate the problem – prefer statistical analysis.

The U.S. STEM workforce numbers about 7.5 to 8 million, or about 5 percent of the workforce. The computer occupations comprise about half (48.5%) of the STEM workforce at 3.7 to 4 million workers. If we use the BLS projections for IT job growth, which is comprised of replacements (for those leaving the workforce because of retirements and job separations—layoffs and quits) and growth of the workforce, the IT industry needs approximately 124,000 new workers each year. Mircosoft’s Washington representative and counsel Brad Smith (in his Congressional testimony) uses an earlier BLS projection of an annual increase of 120,000, and the trade organization code.org, echoed by the Computing Research Association, use 150,000 as the expected annual demand for new IT workers (Harsha, 2014). Smith and these associations then assert that the BLS workforce growth estimates represent the demand for computer science graduates. Matched against annual computer science graduation of 67,000 in 2012, the claim of a supply shortage is made. It is these statistics and claims that are repeated widely.

However, such claims misinterpret the BLS workforce projections for the computer occupations in asserting it is a demand for computer science graduates. For example, Daniel Costa conducted a detailed study of these computer science shortage claims by Microsoft and other companies and shows the evidence does not support these claims because, among other reasons, “[i]t is a well-known fact that computer science graduates are not the only source of new hires in computing….less than one-fourth to less than one-half of workers in computing occupations have a computer science degree” (Costa, 2012). In fact, of those currently in computer occupations, only 14 percent hold a computer science degree and another 4 percent have electrical engineering (EE) degrees. Since that reflects the education level of the entire current IT workforce, of all ages, it could understate the current cohort education levels.

Examining recent cohorts of all new entrants into IT occupations who have a post-secondary education, we find 34 percent have a bachelors or master computer science degree (See Figure 1); of just the pool of four-year college graduates entering computer occupations, 46 percent have a computer science degree. About 36 percent of entrants into computer occupations do not have any four year degree. Thus, we estimate that demand for new workers in computer occupations with a computer science degree as approximately 29 percent of the BLS projection of total demand for new workers (65% of new workforce entrants in computer occupations have a four-year degree and 46% of those have a degree in computer science, or 29% of all new workforce entrants). Using the actual educational composition of the computer occupations as an estimate of hiring demand by education and degree, the supply of computer science graduates needed to meet industry demand would be approximately 36,500 computer science graduates each year (based on the BLS projection of 124,000 new jobs). Figure 2 shows the historical graduation numbers of computer science graduates.

Figure 1: Education of IT workforce with postsecondary education

Current graduation rates indicate that projected employment demand specifically for computer science (CS) graduates can be met by about half of the current supply of 70,000 Bachelors CS graduates each year, and the balance of demand can be met by those graduating with a range of other degrees, as is the historical pattern. Even if current industry hiring is for a much greater level of computer scientists than historical hiring patterns, the current pool of graduates would provide sufficient numbers of computer scientists to meet industry demand. Our analysis of a large, nationally representative survey of a recent college cohort by the National Center for Educational Statistics finds that only two-thirds of computer science graduates went into IT jobs in 2009 (that would include all IT jobs, not just those for formally defined as computer occupations). Of those not landing an IT job, half said they found a better job elsewhere. Fully one third reported there were no IT jobs available (although this was the year after the start of the Great Recession, this is only slightly lower than the historical trend; Salzman, et al., 2013). Also worth noting is that an additional 64,341 students earned an Associates degree, certification or licensure in IT in 2012, also far exceeding the expected growth of 44,600 new IT workers with less than a Bachelors degree for work in the computer occupations (many of whom do not require an Associates degree, certification or licensure).

As a point of comparison to an industry that has used the market to increase the supply of graduates, petroleum engineers were in great demand and the observed starting salaries jumped from $43,674 in 1997 to $50,400 in 1999, $55,987 in 2003, $61,516 in 2005 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2004, 2006), and $86,220 in 2010 (National Association of Colleges and Employers, 2010). That is, in petroleum engineering, where there was demonstrated high levels of demand by industry, starting salaries doubled. The IT firms offered new graduates the same salaries as in years past,1 keeping average wages throughout this past decade at 1990s levels.2 Our analysis of an extensive survey of a recent college cohort by the National Center for Educational Statistics finds computer science graduates do not find a high-demand market when they graduate. Only two-thirds of computer science graduates went into IT jobs in 2009. Of those not landing an IT job, half said they found a better job elsewhere. Fully one third reported there were no IT jobs available.

This was also the finding in our analysis of changes in the composition of STEM graduates going into STEM jobs over the past three decades (Lowell, et al., 2009). We found that although the overall supply remained strong, fewer of the highest performing students were going into STEM jobs.