That goes nuclear
Ayson 14 (Robert Ayson Professor of Strategic Studies at Victoria University of Wellington, and Adjunct Professor at the Australian National University’s Strategic and Defence Studies Centre. Desmond Ball is Emeritus Professor at the Australian National University, where he was head of the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre from 1984 to 1991, "Can a Sino-Japanese War Be Controlled?", Nov 25 www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/00396338.2014.985441?needAccess=true)//susu
In the strategic relationship between Japan and China, however, there are problems at both the political and military–technical levels. Firstly, there seems to be minimal political understanding of, or commitment to, avoiding escalation. It is hard to tell whether Japan and China will see it as in their political interests to constrain what begins as a minor conflict. These political obstacles increase the pressure created by military considerations that encourage swift escalation, to the point at which even nuclear options seem attractive. The close military links between Japan and the US would not necessarily encourage restraint. It may be militarily logical for the US to place China in a position in which further escalation seemed tempting, while it could be politically logical for Japan to create conditions in which American action became more likely. An initial outbreak of hostilities between Japan and China over the East China Sea could remain just that: a short, contained exchange of fire and a sobering lesson that encouraged much-needed efforts to improve communication and recognise their common interest in avoiding conflict. But it might also veer out of control before they had a chance to take preventative measures. The subsequent involvement of the United States could lead to Asia’s first serious war involving nuclear-armed states. And we have no precedent to suggest how dangerous that would become.