Trump wins, 5 point margin
Revell 7/25 [Eric Revell, 7/25/2024, Eric Revell is a writer for FOX Business and Fox News Digital. Prior to joining Fox in 2022, Eric spent eight years as a writer and editor for Countable covering politics and the economy, Donald Trump vs Kamala Harris: What do the betting markets say?, https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/donald-trump-vs-kamala-harris-what-do-betting-markets-say]
President Biden's decision on Sunday to drop out of the presidential race and Vice President Harris gaining the support to become the Democratic Party's presumptive nominee hasn't caused a dramatic shift in betting markets' views of the matchup with Republican nominee former President Trump.
Biden's decision on Sunday to withdraw from the race came after intense pressure from Democrat politicians who were concerned about his waning support amid concerns over his health and mental acuity in the wake of his poor debate performance against Trump on June 27.
Biden's odds of winning a second term plunged from about 45% on PredictIt on the eve of the debate to 15% on Saturday, the day prior to his decision to withdraw. Bettors on Polymarket cut his odds from about 34% to 7% in that time frame.
As of Wednesday evening, traders on Polymarket gave Trump a 63% chance of winning while Vice President Harris had 32%, with Trump's odds mostly unchanged since Sunday's development. On PredictIt, Trump's odds have dipped slightly from 60% on Sunday to 57% as of Wednesday, and Harris' odds rose from 40% to 45% in that time.