Harris Loses Independent Women – key to swing states like Michigan

Vice President Kamala Harris appears to be trailing among independent women voters since announcing her run for the presidency, per a recent national poll.

Harris has made big waves among the Democratic Party since being endorsed by President Joe Biden to take his place at the top of the party's ticket this November. As of Monday, her campaign said that she has secured enough support from delegates to be her party's presumptive nominee, and the last 48 hours have brought in a record number of donations for Democrats.

According to a poll conducted by NPR, PBS News and Marist, however, Harris is likely in for a neck-and-neck battle against former President Donald Trump, who formally accepted the Republican presidential nomination last week. The poll released on Tuesday found that Harris trailed Trump by 1 percentage point (45 percent to 46 percent, respectively) across nationally registered voters. In such a close contest, either candidate will have to rely on key demographics—such as independent women voters—to push them to victory in November.

Trump, according to the Marist poll, surpasses Harris in this crucial category. Forty-six percent of independent voters surveyed this week said that they would pick the former president in a hypothetical matchup between him and Harris, compared to 32 percent of independents who said they would back the vice president. Breaking down even further, Harris only gained the support of 29 percent of independent women, compared to the 43 percent that said they would back Trump if the election was held today. The poll was conducted on July 22 and includes the response from 1,117 registered voters nationwide.

The results are a significant step back from how Biden, who dropped out of the 2024 election on Sunday, was faring among independent women. In an NPR/PBS/Marist poll conducted between July 9 and 10, 48 percent of independent women said that they would back the president if the election was held today. That result followed Biden's rocky first debate performance on June 27, which ignited concerns among Democrats about the president's ability to defeat Trump in November.

Newsweek sent an email to Marist Poll for comment on Tuesday.

Polling prior to Biden dropping out of the race showed that Harris may have a tough time winning over independent and moderate voters. According to the compiling of polling data conducted by NBC News in January, April and July, Harris has a lower net score than Biden among independents—while Biden's net rating was negative favorability review by 25 percentage points between the three months reviewed, Harris had a net negative of 29 points among independents.