With elections incoming, new policies—regardless of which side takes office—are guaranteed to spike inflation.

Stubbornly high inflation has been showing signs of abating in recent months, but one prominent research firm is betting it’s set to rise. And the reason? To paraphrase a Clinton-era political saying, it’s the election, stupid.

Regardless of whether Joe Biden or Donald Trump wins a coveted second term, inflation will increase, predicts the research firm Oxford Economics. The question is how much. Both presidents’ policies are inflationary, albeit in different ways, Oxford says. And while the broad trend lines of the economy will remain the same regardless of who controls the White House or Congress, how steep they end up being could change drastically from one political reality to another.

“It’s only the degree to which GDP and inflation are higher under the next president that differs depending on the political configuration,” wrote Oxford Economics deputy chief U.S. economist Bernard Yaros Jr. in a research note published last week.

Under a Trump presidency, peak inflation would be 0.6 percentage points higher than the current 3.3%, according to Oxford Economics’ analysis. That means inflation would reach 3.8%. Under Biden, Oxford predicts, inflation would be just 0.1% higher than it is now.

The main drivers of inflation under Trump would be his draconian immigration policies, which would shrink the available workforce; a further cut of corporate tax rates, and, most notably, an unprecedented set of tariffs on all foreign goods. Meanwhile, Oxford Economics assumes that Biden would temporarily extend the Child Tax Credit, leading to a near-term spike in inflation, as low-income families spend their tax refunds at a time when the economy requires less spending. Eventually that increase in inflation would give way to a period of stable economic growth, Yaros told Fortune.

In the long run, “family support policies stimulate growth without raising inflation because they boost the economy, not by having people spend, but by allowing more working mothers to participate in the labor force,” he says.

Notably, under neither Biden nor Trump would inflation decline or even remain at its current levels, according to Yaros’ analysis.

Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell was slightly more optimistic about inflation coming down over the course of his two-day Senate testimony on Tuesday and Wednesday. Although Powell remained circumspect on when exactly he expected inflation to head toward the Fed’s 2% target.