Food production has shown tremendous progress, food wars unlikely

Since Malthus wrote his famous Essay on Population, the world has witnessed great improvements in numerous measures of well-being – life expectancy, infan tmortality, incidence of famines and plagues, per capita food consumption as well as real per capita incomes. These improvements have come about during rapidpopulation growth in both industrial and developing countries. Food demand andsupply projections suggest that growth of supply will fully meet growth ofconsumption while grain prices continue to decline. While China may increasegrain imports early next century, Central and Eastern Europe is likely to emergeas a major grain exporter and thus help to meet the increase in China's imports.The past two centuries, and especially the last half century, have witnesseddramatic improvements in the well-being of the world's population, unpar-alleled in human history. This is especially true of the increases in percapita food consumption. Other measures of well-being, however, such aslife expectancy and freedom from famine, have also shown markedprogress. Yet, during recent years, claims have been made that the worldis (or soon will be) overpopulated. Some have claimed that the growth ofworld demand for food will soon outpace the growth of supply. The factthat similar claims, made over the past three decades, have all proved tobe false seems always to be forgotten.Reputable studies of prospective food supply and demand conclude that there will be continued improvement in per capita food consumption,especially in the developing countries (see Islam 1995). Yet the projectionsof doom and gloom continue to make headlines and receive mediaattention. The potential accuracy of such projections seems irrelevant sincenotice depends solely on the emphasis on possible disaster while moresober and well documented studies receive little attention in the world'spress.That pessimism makes news is well illustrated by the fact that Thomas Malthus is remembered for his comparison of the growth paths of foodproduction and population. Food production, he said, increases arithmet-ically while population, if unchecked, increases geometrically. Thus,population always has the potential to outrun food supply. At the timethis statement was made, his view was that population could only be heldin check by vice and misery – starvation, disease or war. But, this is theMalthus of the Ærst edition. 1 He soon revised his views, yet hardly anyonenoticed or remembers that he came to agree with those who, before theÆrst edition of his essay, believed that there would be continuing improve-ment in the well-being of people.2