Cuts in 43% of emissions are necessary by 2030 – status quo only achieves 8%

NDCs = Nationally Determined Contributions, a metric used in the Paris Agreement

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) finds that global emissions must fall by at least 43% from 2019 levels by 2030 to align with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5-degree-C goal. However, current NDCs will only reduce global emissions by about 8% from 2019 levels.

This 8% represents a reduction of 5.9 gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent (GtCO2e) compared to the initial round of NDCs — approximately equivalent to eliminating the annual emissions of the United States. Although a step in the right direction, countries will need to reduce emissions by more than 5 times as much to align with 1.5-degree-C pathways.

In the current NDCs more countries have set GHG reduction targets than in the initial round, and some have expanded their targets to cover more sectors and more types of greenhouse gases. But the emissions impact of these improvements has been modest. More than 85% of the improvement has come from large countries ratcheting up the stringency of their targets as opposed to countries adding new targets or expanding them to cover additional sectors and gases. Accelerating ambition on this front is paramount to the success of the Paris Agreement.