The CP boosts cleantech innovation and solves climate change better than the aff – there’s too much energy tech uncertainty for market-based solutions to work

To begin the green industrial revolution and to tackle climate change we are again in need of an active State that takes on the high uncertainty of its early stages, which the business sector fears. Yet, despite the buzz surrounding 'clean technology' as the 'new economic frontier', and the 'green revolution' as the imminent third 'industrial revolution', there is in reality little that is truly new about many clean technologies. For example, wind and solar power have histories reaching back well over 100 years (and further still if considering non- electrical exploitation of the power sources). While the industrial revolution is often told as a story of steam and fossil fuels (Barca 2011), we have relied in the past on what would today be considered biomass, wind and hydro power.3 Despite our past experience and current knowledge of 'clean' energy technologies, government support seeking to make clean energy a dominant part of the energy mix has historically either been non-existent, or tended to wax and wane. The lack of focus and commitment to a clean technology future is what is preventing a more rapid transformation of the fossil energy infrastructure into a clean energy infrastructure.

But there are some rays of hope. In this early part of the twenty- first century, governments around the world have once again taken the lead in pumping up the R&D of many clean technologies like wind and solar power, and efforts are being made to establish modernized energy grids. They also subsidize and support the growth of leading manufacturers that compete for domestic and global market leadership. Finally, governments deploy both policy and finance to encourage stable development of competitive markets for renewable energy. As has been the case in the development of other industries such as biotech and IT, private businesses have entered the game only after successful government initiatives absorb most of the uncertainty and not a little risk of developing new energy technologies in the first place.

The 'green' industry is still in its early stages: it is characterized by both market and technological uncertainty. It will not develop 'naturally' through market forces, in part because of embedded energy infrastructure but also because of a failure of markets to value sustainability or to punish waste and pollution. In the face of such uncertainty, the business sector will not enter until the riskiest and most capital-intensive investments have been made, or until there are coherent and systematic policy signals in place. As in the early stage of IT, biotech and nanotech industries, there is little indication that the business sector alone would enter the new 'green' sector and drive it forward in the absence of strong and active government policy. Thus, while 'nudging' might incentivize a few entrepreneurs to act, most business actors will need stronger signals to justify their engagement in clean technology innovation. Only long-term policy decisions can reduce the uncertainty of transforming core business from legacy into clean technologies. In fact, no other high-tech industry has been created or transformed with a 'nudge'. Most likely, a strong 'push' is needed.