The next threat – Disease X

The Covid-19 pandemic, little by little and with some setbacks and many tragedies, will come to mind. This coronavirus may disappear and then reappear, continue endemic under the control of the vaccine or simply attenuate and disappear. The economy and health systems will return to a new normal, some parts more quickly than others.

Like the multiple plagues humanity has endured since our ancestors gathered in cities- an investigation published by the U.S. National Center for Biotechnological Information (NCBI) - this pandemic will generate recriminations for slow and misguided responses, speculation, and exaggerated or insufficient reactions to economic, social, and health events that , retrospectively, will be obvious.

Individuals and organizations most guilty of exacerbating the disaster will escape responsibility while taking others as a scapegoat and trying to rewrite history. Heroes, whether they were people who helped provide clear communication of risks and leadership or groups that persevered in the face of fear and danger that threatened life, will excel. Without fanfare, most will return to their normal jobs, full of scars but proud of their efforts. As they have done before, experts and scholars will endlessly write about the cause, effects, and ways to improve the brutal destruction of lives and ways of life in the next pandemic.

"The problem is that we've done all this before and we don't seem to have learned the lessons our predecessors taught," warns Dr. Kenneth V. Iserson, professor of Emergency Medicine, director of the Arizona Bioethics Program at the University of Arizona School of Medicine and lead author of the research.

Approximately one new disease arises each year (AFP)

For most people, the new coronavirus appears to be an abnormality; It's not. The 20th century began with devastating waves of Spanish influenza that killed 50 million to 100 million people worldwide. Approximately one new disease arises each year. Not everyone has person-to-person transmission, but they do have it to scare those tasked with monitoring global health.

To highlight the danger and prioritize research, each year the World Health Organization (WHO) instructs a committee of experts to update its list of the most threatening infectious diseases that lack effective treatments or vaccines. The current list includes COVID-19, since the whole world is now focused on that pathogen. "What should act as a call for attention to seriously fund the surveillance, research and treatment of the wide variety of potential pandemic agents is the entity at the bottom of the short list: 'X disease',"says Iserson.

Since 2015, WHO has used this designation for a disease that could cause a pandemic due to a pathogen currently unknown to cause human disease. Last year's X-disease now has a name: COVID-19. However, the next unknown and un named entity may already be lurking.

One might ask: why don't we come up with a plan to identify these pathogens early and mobilize scientists, the health community, politicians and the population to combat these scourges? The answer is that we've already done it. We know what steps to take to limit a pandemic. WHO, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the Departments of Homeland Security and Health and Human Services have developed and disseminated plansDetailed.

"It is clear that there are multiple X diseases in our future; we have to be prepared" (AFP)

"After the SARS pandemic, for example, WHO detailed the steps needed to control a pandemic. These vital steps were ignored during the initial period of the COVID-19 pandemic. WHO, which is chronically under-funded, has to endure a bulging, slow and uncoordinated bureaucracy that has to respond to 194 countries. He has been convicted both of overreacting (2009 H1N1 pandemic) and for reacting severely (Ebola epidemic 2014 and COVID-19 pandemic) and for not acting. CDC has chronic underfunding and has no political power. Academics are voices in the desert whose advice is usually sought too late in the process to have a lot of effect," says the specialist.

He concludes: "As the threat of COVID-19 diminishes, politicians will make great promises to implement plans to stop, or at least prepare for, the next pandemic. The economy in recovery will be too weak at first to support the effort, although more funds will be pledged in the future. Ultimately, they will make changes that are politically convenient and will not authorize the changes needed to produce faster, more flexible responses. Memories of anguish and social disturbance during COVID-19 will disappear. Our bulwarks against pandemic diseases will continue to be underfunded and unsuitable for the task. Still, it is clear that there are multiple X diseases in our future; we have to be prepared."