Michigan decides the election --- it is the state that flips the electoral college.

It wasn't so long ago, Michigan's place in presidential elections was considered almost a foregone conclusion.

From 1992 through 2012, it only backed Democratic nominees and national campaigns noticed. U.S. Sen. John McCain, as the Republican nominee in 2008, pulled up stakes early in the state, figuring it was out of reach and that he had to spend resources elsewhere. Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, as the Democratic nominee in 2016, was criticized for not campaigning there more frequently and ceding it — albeit narrowly — to Donald Trump that year.

Well, no one's taking Michigan for granted any more.

Former President Trump has made three visits to the state in the last 2½ months, with rallies in Oakland and Saginaw counties and a news conference on immigration in Grand Rapids. President Joe Biden has made two decidedly more low-key visits with UAW members in Warren in February and at a private residence and a golf club in Saginaw in March. But Vice President Kamala Harris has been here as well, at a reproductive rights roundtable in Grand Rapids, and she's coming to Detroit on Monday to talk about the administration's economic agenda. And Biden will be speaking at the Detroit NAACP's Fight for Freedom Fund dinner on May 19 that is expected to attract thousands of people to Huntington Place.

Six months out from the Nov. 5 election, campaign ads in the state have been picking up as well.

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Is all this activity unusual? This early in a presidential election, it absolutely is. Usually, it would be fall before the state would be showered with so much personal attention. But it's not unusual given that it's increasingly looking like Michigan may — and this is not an exaggeration — decide the election.

"I don't know if there is a shade of purple deeper than Michigan is," said Jamaine Dickens, a Detroit-based political consultant. "If I'm Trump, I'm thinking, I've won Michigan before and I can win Michigan again. As for Biden, the community is really polarized over the (Israel-Hamas) conflict. ... Anything's possible."

This week, in the Atlantic magazine, political analyst Ron Brownstein wrote about the election, focusing particular attention on Michigan, noting that Biden has struggled in polls despite it typically being considered the most-Democratic leaning of the so-called Rust Belt swing states that include Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Brownstein said Biden — who beat Trump in Michigan by about 154,000 votes, or just under 3 percentage points in 2020 — has been "whipsawed by defections among multiple groups Democrats rely on, including Arab Americans, auto workers, young people and Black Americans."

No one believes that Michigan is out of reach for Biden, far from it. His campaign has poured resources and personnel into the state for voter outreach, get-out-the-vote efforts and blunting Trump's messages through copious ads from his own campaign fund, as well as other Democratic political organizations in the media at every turn. While the Trump campaign is said to have recently begun creating such infrastructure in Michigan, it hasn't been nearly as active, relying instead largely on surrogates, social media and the candidate himself.

"You can’t win without Michigan," said Michigan-based Democratic political consultant Jill Alper. "So, visit early, visit often, visit always. Leave an advance team on the ground. And organize every inch."

Recent polls also have shown the race tightening in Michigan from where it appeared to be late last year and early this year when Trump had a wider lead, in some cases by as many as 8 to 10 points. Despite Trump's claims to the contrary, his average lead has dropped to about 1 point — well within the margin of error and a virtual tie — and some recent polls have shown Biden narrowly ahead (though, again, within the margin of error).

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That, by itself, doesn't explain why Michigan would be so important. What does is the national circumstances that Biden and Trump face in this year's election and the reality of Electoral College math.

Here it is in a nutshell: Four years ago, Biden won — and let's get this out of the way here, there is no credible evidence that he did not, no matter what Trump and his allies claim — a host of swing states, a group that for this story we'll limit to Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona and Georgia. That, plus all the other state outcomes, gave Biden an Electoral College victory over Trump of 306-232. A president needs 270 Electoral College votes to win.

This year, Arizona and Georgia, traditionally far more Republican-leaning states, appear as if they could be more difficult targets for Biden to capture again. Nevada, too, has appeared to be swinging more strongly toward Trump. Democratic hopes of flipping North Carolina and Florida, while possible, are long shots in an environment where Biden is still suffering from poor favorability ratings.

If Arizona, Georgia and Nevada go red, that gives Trump an Electoral College margin of 268 to 226, all else staying as it did in 2020 and not yet factoring in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. But that means Biden has to run the table in those states to get to exactly 270. Trump only has to win one of them. (You can play around with Electoral College combinations at www.270towin.com).

And Michigan has, for months, looked like the one that might be most likely to flip.