Old voters uniquely vote far more than any other demographic – they will turn out for the 2024 election

They say elections are decided by those who show up to vote. There are many inequalities that affect turnout and therefore shift voting power from some groups and to others. Age is one of the strongest of these factors, and it has been since we’ve been able to measure it well. There have been some changes over time, but the basic result, that the young vote less than the old and that turnout climbs with each additional year of life, is one of the most robust findings in political science. In a presidential year, the youngest voters, 18–29, turn out at a 47–65 percent rate, while those in their 60s exceed an 80 percent turnout rate. In midterms, those under 30 turn out at 17–35 percent while those in their 60s vote at a 70 percent rate. (These are self-reported rates among U.S. citizens. See note at bottom for more details on the data.) That sharp rise with age, which is also very regular in its increase with each year of age, means that those under 30 are always underrepresented among the voting population while those older than about 45 are over represented [overrepresented]. The gap between presidential and midterm elections is particularly notable as we approach the 2018 midterm. Relative to presidential years, the younger a person is the lower their likelihood of voting in a midterm compared to a presidential election. To the extent the young are underrepresented in presidential years, they are even more underrepresented in midterm electorates. The tipping point of representation comes at about 36 years old, when share of population and share of voters becomes about equal. After 45, the share of voters exceeds share of population. (I use 2016 data only here to avoid changes in the age distribution.) There has been some variation in turnout over time, especially among the younger voters. Turnout among the youngest citizens bumped up substantially between 2000 and 2004, perhaps reflecting the closeness of the 2000 election result. Turnout rose again in 2008 before falling back a bit in 2012 and 2016. While there is some varation by year among those over 50 it is more modest compared to the year-to-year changes we see below age 30 or 35. Younger citizens appear to respond more to short-term, election specific presidential campaign forces than do their elders. It is worth noting as well that the increase in voting among those under 35 has sustained its overall increase compared to 1996 and 2000. That increase, obviously, has not erased the age gradient, though it has flattened it somewhat. Midterm turnout however has not seen any increase among the young. Not only is turnout quite low among those under 30, the increase we see in presidential elections after 2000 are much smaller in midterms. If the last 5 midterms are a guide, we’d expect fewer than 1 in 3 people under 30 to cast a ballot this November. There are many reasons why the young are less likely to vote. These include level of political interest, overcoming the initial barrier of registration to vote, a busy life of many changes, geographic mobility and simply not yet having developed the habit of voting. Some of these factors can be influenced by campaigns and efforts at mobilization. The increase in turnout after 2000 in presidential elections shows that some change can occur. The lack of substantial change in midterm turnout raises doubts as to how much mobilization can be effective in 2018.