The suburbs are the only places where swing voters still exist.

People often talk about politics as though the business of electing candidates is shrouded in nearly infinite complexity. The reality is that for most of the 40 years I have been in and around campaigns, winning has often come down to just three factors -- the racial composition of a district or state, its median income, and the percentage of its voters who graduated college.

Recent years, however, have upended old assumptions. These days, the first thing I want to know about a district or state is its population density. In other words, is it primarily rural, urban,or suburban? If it's in the last category, how far do these voters live from downtown – i.e., is it more of an inner suburb or an outer one?

The suburbs have often played a key role in election outcomes. However, most have missed how deeply they have changed since the turn of the century – and how profound the implications of those changes are for politics in the years ahead.

Today’s suburbs no longer reflect Donald Trump’s nostalgic 1950’s view of white middle-class life in America. They are more economically and demographically diverse than inner cities, with a more complicated mix of racial backgrounds, languages, and countries of origin.1 As a result, where someone chooses to live is now becoming as good a predictor as race of that voter’s behavior.

As cities become even more solidly Democratic, and as many rural areas become single-party precincts for Republicans, the suburbs are becoming the last places you will find genuine swing voters.

After decades of Republican domination, there is the perception that the suburbs have swung towards the Democrats. It is true that the Democrats' success in the suburbs led to their takeover of the House in 2018 and Joe Biden’s victory in 2020.2 But their success was more of a vote against Trump than a mandate for Biden and the Democrats' policy positions.3

In fact, despite an era of less ticket splitting, the Republicans picked up 15 House seats in 2020 – almost all of which were in the suburbs.4 And the suburbs contributed to Glenn Youngkin’s gubernatorial victory in Democratically controlled Virginia despite the fact that Biden carried the state a year earlier by 11 points.5

The fact is that suburban voters don’t perceive either party as being responsive to the concerns that animate their daily lives. As the parties become more driven by ideology, suburban voters remain resolutely practical-minded. They are concerned with raising children who can succeed in an increasingly complex, unpredictable society. They are worried about maintaining an economic status that, for many of these voters, is both relatively recent and precarious. These concerns often transcend racial or ethnic identity.

These suburban voters are not attracted to the political extremism of either political party. This is particularly true in mixed suburbs, ones that are not predominantly urban or rural.

Voters in these suburbs, of whatever race, generally don’t support the cultural wars and identity politics of the Democratic Party. During a time of rising crime, they do not support defunding the police. And they are not looking for an expansive or intrusive federal government.

They are also not concerned about the “Big Lie” that the 2020 election was stolen from Trump. They do not believe that the attack on the Capitol on January 6th was “legitimate political discourse.” Nor do they support the intolerance and out-of-the-mainstream views on social issues like abortion and guns promoted by today’s Trump-dominated Republican Party.

The stakes for winning the suburban vote could not be higher as the country transitions from a 20th-century industrial economy to a 21st-century digital one. With this change the economic center is shifting from the industrial Midwest to the South and Southwest. By being at the center of this new economy, the sunbelt states will increasingly wield power in American politics the way that the Midwest did in the last century.

From Virginia to Arizona, the states in this region all share the same characteristics. They are surging in population, and they are heavily suburban.6 They also share another characteristic. Even if they lean towards a political party, they are not highly partisan in their views on issues.

The party that is able to win the hearts and minds of suburban voters will control political power in our country. At the moment neither political party appears to even recognize this opportunity, let alone have the willingness to seize it.