Young people will mobilize in the 2024 election – their polls don’t take into account the new generation of voters

In the past decade, young people have risen to the forefront of civic and political life in the United States. They have led major movements for action on issues like gun violence, climate, and racial justice. They have voted at historic rates compared to youth in previous decades, and their choices on the ballot have influenced key elections. In 2024, Gen Z youth alone will make up over 40 million potential voters—including 8 million youth who will have newly reached voting age since 2022—making up nearly one fifth of the American electorate. Together with the youngest Millennials, young people ages 18-34 are poised to be a potential force in the next presidential election. But young people are also living through trying times in their personal lives, for our country, and around the world that make their continued civic participation far from guaranteed. The nation’s economy, while strong by some accounts, has nonetheless left many young people concerned about jobs, the cost of living, and their financial situation. A mental health crisis affects many young people’s ability and desire to vote and engage in their communities. And many are looking ahead (though not necessarily looking forward) to a potential presidential rematch in 2024 between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump—two candidates that have not often garnered young people’s approval and enthusiasm. The CIRCLE Pre-2024 Election Youth Survey provides key insights on these questions early on in the election cycle, when there is still time for campaigns and communities to take action, invest in young people, and address their needs. Crucially, it highlights critical differences by race, education and rurality that shape the political views and engagement of the most diverse generations in American history. This initial analysis from our nationally representative poll of youth ages 18-34 reveals major trends about youth, including: A majority say they’re very likely to vote in 2024, though groups like Black youth and youth without college experience, who are getting less information about the election and support to participate, are less likely to say they’ll cast a ballot. Youth overall prefer a Democratic candidate by a double-digit margin, but nearly a third are undecided and some groups of youth favor a GOP nominee. Issues like climate change and gun violence remain at the center of youth engagement with politics and elections, but the cost of living is, by a wide margin, young people’s top concern.