The youth vote will swamp older voter turnout in the election

Our analysis of youth voter turnout nationwide finds wide variation between states and underscores the importance of electoral laws and policies that help grow voters. We estimate that 50% of young people, ages 18-29, voted in the 2020 presidential election, a remarkable 11-point increase from 2016 (39%) and likely one of the highest rates of youth electoral participation since the voting age was lowered to 18. Our new estimate is based on newly available voter file data in 41 states—AK, DC, HI, MD, MS, NH, ND, UT, WI, WY do not have reliable vote history data by age. This analysis replaces our earlier estimate, released immediately after Election Day, which estimated a 5 to 11 point increase in youth voter turnout compared to 2016 based on data available in that moment. In recent weeks, we released youth voter turnout in all available states by region: West/Southwest, South, Midwest, and East/Northeast. Those analyses offer more details on several notable states and have now been updated with the latest data. Our estimates of youth voter turnout rates in more than 80% of states are in some ways a tribute to young people’s commitment to political engagement and action in 2020, and their impressive ability to navigate a changing electoral landscape during a global pandemic. The data also allows us to zoom out, look at trends in youth voter participation, and draw some conclusions about what is and isn’t working to broaden and diversify the youth electorate. We pay special attention to laws and election administration policies that affect the ease of casting a ballot in each state—from voter registration to vote-by-mail, which can always impact youth voter turnout but may have had especially large effects in 2020, as the COVID-19 pandemic shifted election processes across the country. [Graph Omitted] Youth Voting Increased Across the Country Half of eligible young voters cast a ballot in 2020. However, as is the case in every election cycle, youth voter turnout rates varied widely across the country: New Jersey (67%), Minnesota (65%), Colorado (64%) and Maine (61%) had the highest statewide youth turnout rates, while South Dakota (32%), Oklahoma (34%), Arkansas (35%), and New Mexico (39%) had the lowest. Numerous interconnected factors shape whether youth electoral participation is high or low. These include the competitiveness of elections, how much (or how little) campaigns and organizations reach out to young people, the state’s civic culture and civic education policies, the demographic composition of the youth population, and state voting laws—which are discussed in greater detail below—that can either facilitate voting or pose barriers for youth. Because there’s no single reason why youth voter turnout may be high or low in a state, and no silver bullet if it’s the latter, it is crucial to examine these and other factors that may be at play in order to expand the electorate. Turnout in 2020 was much higher than in 2016, when we estimate (using the same methodology) that 39% of young people cast a ballot. This sizable, 11-point increase builds on young people’s momentum from 2018, when youth turnout was record-setting for a midterm year. State-by-state turnout increases between 2016 and 2020 were 9 percentage points on average, but also varied widely. The largest increases in youth voter turnout were in New Jersey (+22), Arizona (+18), and California and Washington (both +17). Notably, with the exception of Arizona, all of those states automatically mailed absentee ballots to all registered voters without voters having to request them. No states saw a decrease in turnout, and in only one state (Louisiana) did the youth voter turnout rate remain flat, at 42%, between 2016 and 2020. Turnout of Newly Eligible Voters Stronger, but Still Lagging We also estimate that voter turnout among young people ages 18-19 was 46%. This age group deserves special attention because they are the newest eligible voters, so their electoral participation, or lack thereof can provide a window into how well—and how equitably—we are preparing and priming youth to participate in democracy. Additionally, voting is a habit that, when formed and practiced early, is likeliest to persist later in life. But, by the same token, when preparation for voting is inequitable early in life, those inequities can also persist. Historically, youth ages 18-19 have voted at lower rates than their slightly older peers, and that was once again the case in 2020. However, some states managed to close the gap; in California and Washington, remarkably, voter turnout was actually higher among youth ages 18-19. But in still other states the difference was stark: in South Dakota, where 32% of young people under 30 voted, just 12% of 18- and 19-year-olds cast a ballot. As we mark the 50-year anniversary of the 26th amendment that lowered the voting age to 18, these voter turnout differences by age are a reminder that challenges to achieving equitable participation remain. They also point to the importance of a Growing Voters framework that focuses on how the education system, election administrators, and other stakeholders can ensure that we start preparing young people to vote long before they turn 18.