Jung and Lee 17

Offensive realists are right: China's growth has destabilized regional stability in the post-Mao period. Our statistical analysis of China's initiation of military conflict shows that its economic power has had significant and positive effects. In addition, China was more aggressive toward its territorial dispute opponents, although the United States’ Asian allies were no more likely to be military targets than other Asian states. In short, China's greater power made the country more assertive, rather than cooperative, toward Asian states and major powers. This leads us to expect that China will maintain its current uncompromising and firm position in the South and East China Seas if its economic rise continues. Also, China's growth will accelerate its resolute protection of core interests in strategic and economic matters. Two objections are possible to the argument presented here regarding China's growth and aggression. First, some may argue that a stronger China was dragged into more conflicts with foreign actors. China's rise to become a major power might not have changed its goals and strategies as much as it increased the emergence of conflict-laden issues. As it is now connected more deeply and extensively with foreign actors, China will face more international issues, and some conflict will be unavoidable. However, as explained earlier, this study's dependent variable was not conflict involvement but conflict initiation. Of course, there have been some historical cases of over-balancing, as seen in European countries before World War I. But this study shows that China has become more prone to conflict initiation as it has gained greater economic capability. Second, some may question the proposed relation between conflict initiation and regional stability. China might, for example, become more prone to low-intensity conflict but not to high-intensity conflict. According to this view, China's growth could increase some tensions but still not seriously destabilize regional stability. Whereas Germany's growth drove Europe into two world wars, China might not pursue the German route but might instead seek its own pathway to a peaceful rise. We agree that there is little probability of an all-out war between China and other major powers, but the absence of all-out war does not imply regional stability. Many international rivalries, such as those between the United States and the Soviet Union or between South and North Korea, have presented serious threats to the participants even though direct high-intensity military conflicts have not occurred. Even low-intensity sources of conflict, such as military threat and military displays, can seriously harm regional stability, especially when they happen repeatedly.