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NFU spurs international follow-on and sends a credible political signal to allies.

Gerson 11[Michael S. Gerson is a research analyst at the Center for Naval Analyses (CNA) in Alexandria, Virginia, where his research focuses on nuclear and conventional deterrence, nuclear strategy, and arms control; “The Future of U.S. Nuclear Policy: The Case for No First Use”; February 2011; https://www.belfercenter.org/publication/future-us-nuclear-policy-case-no-first-use#:~:text=A%20credible%20NFU%20policy%20would,and%20inherently%20credible%20nuclear%20policy.]//araghvn

For the United States and its allies, NFU has several military and political benefits. First, it would enhance crisis stability. A credible NFU policy would help decrease an opponent's trepidations about a U.S. first strike, thereby reducing the possibility that nuclear weapons are used accidentally, inadvertently, or deliberately in a severe crisis.

Second, NFU would give the United States a consistent and inherently credible nuclear policy. Although some states might question U.S. political resolve to use nuclear weapons first, adversaries cannot dismiss the possibility of a nuclear response after U.S. interests have been attacked with nuclear weapons. The threat to use nuclear weapons in response to a nuclear attack is highly credible, and it is a threat that U.S. political leaders should want to execute if deterrence fails.

Third, NFU could help assuage some of the recent criticisms of U.S. missile defense and nuclear stockpile maintenance initiatives. A credible NFU policy could help alleviate concerns that missile defenses might be used to complement offensive operations, such as providing a "safety net" for any remaining weapons launched in retaliation after a U.S. first strike against a state's nuclear capabilities. An NFU policy might also score political points with domestic opposition to efforts by the United States to update its aging nuclear stockpile. NFU could help ease domestic and international concerns that efforts to update and enhance the safety and security features of the U.S. nuclear arsenal might inadvertently signal that the United States views nuclear weapons as militarily useful.

Finally, NFU would provide the United States with important political benefits in its efforts to lead the nonproliferation regime and encourage greater international support for nonproliferation initiatives. Many nonnuclear member states of the Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) often base their lack of support for U.S.-led multilateral nonproliferation initiatives on the grounds that the United States has not done enough to fulfill its obligation to Article 6 of the NPT, which commits the declared nuclear states to disarmament. Thus, NFU, by symbolizing an important step toward realizing Article 6, would help remove a significant roadblock to greater support for and participation in the NPT regime among nonnuclear NPT member states.

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