Multipolarity good – accommodates diverse political systems while fostering a balanced global order.

Bipolar bloc confrontation thus comes with severe disadvantages, while any revival of the Western liberal rule-based order seems improbable for the foreseeable future. Likewise, a version of rules-based order that was revised by authoritarian states would be hardly acceptable for liberal democracies. All of these conditions make multipolarity a desirable fallback position, albeit of a temporary character. But what would this kind of multipolar order look like? It would have six characteristics:

First, poles are states or groupings of states that develop their own distinct set of rules and can attract other countries through their cultural and economic appeal (soft power) or exert influence on them through political, economic or military power (hard power).

Second, poles are not all of the same size. On a global level, the US and China are playing in a different league. Few other poles can or could claim to play a global role: the European Union and India, with the possible addition of a non-belligerent Russia, ASEAN, the Gulf states, Japan/South Korea, and less plausibly Brazil, Nigeria, and Indonesia. The impact of other poles is regionally limited (Nigeria in West Africa, Australia in the South Pacific, Turkey in the Near and Middle East) or is related to specific policy areas (Brazil in climate policy).

Third, poles are not equidistant from each other. For the foreseeable future, the EU will be closer to the United States than to any other pole. The distance between poles depends on their interests and their respective normative orientations. Relationships between them will be subject to a specific mixture of partnership, competition, and rivalry.

Fourth, poles are characterized by pronounced differences in their political, social, and economic order. The possibility that one pole could change the system of another is, by definition, very limited (see the first point). However, systems can and will change from within.

Fifth, multipolarity requires a minimum compliance with the rules of international law. Specifically, these include respect for basic human rights, national sovereignty, and territorial integrity, as well as renouncing the use of violence in conflicts. It follows that the influence of poles on other states (see the first point) is not the same thing as the creation of spheres of influence.