Trust the keys, Harris is going to win!

Allan Lichtman, the presidential election prognosticator who has successfully predicted the last nine out of 10 White House races, has made his preliminary projection for the November contest: Vice President Kamala Harris is expected to win, he said Friday.

Lichtman said his final prediction for the White House contest will come in August after the Democratic National Convention, but as of Friday, Harris appears to be the winner based on the formula he uses to forecast the election outcome.

That formula, his 13 Keys to the White House, was developed by Lichtman and renowned mathematician Vladimir Keilis-Borok in 1981. Since then, it has been used to predict the outcome of the United States presidential contests with a high success rate.

Lichtman uses his 13 keys, or criteria, to judge the party that controls the White House's ability to maintain control in an election year. If the White House party is considered to be a success in eight or more of the "keys," then the incumbent party is expected to win. If the incumbent party is viewed as a failure in six or more of the criteria, or "keys," the challenger is expected to win.

Lichtman broke down his rating in a recent video podcast. Here's a summary of his preliminary determination:

What "keys" are Harris winning?

Harris, so far, has won eight of the 13 keys. Those include: