No impact --- governments wouldn’t risk war from domestic issues

Diversionary wars can happen, but they are not terribly common. It would be extremely unlikely for any government to initiate a major conflict because it wants to distract its people from domestic problems. For one thing, a major conflict would almost certainly exacerbate their country’s economic and social problems by putting the country under intense strain. Unless the war is a minor campaign against a much weaker state, there is no reason to assume that the war will be either quick or successful. In most cases, it is unlikely that starting a war would benefit the leadership or the regime. Even a successful minor war might not be very useful for the leadership because the stakes are so insignificant.

If the war goes badly, it could lead to much deeper discontent and opposition to the regime. As Fravel says, diversionary wars are “dangerous gambits because if leaders initiate a diversionary crisis or war that fails to produce the desired results, they risk expediting the collapse of their government.” Many governments gamble by starting a war when they feel confident and secure in their position. That gamble may be the result of poor judgment and based on bad information, but it is one that leaders tend to make when they assume they are acting from a position of strength.

Initiating a conflict is always a huge risk, and it frequently fails to pay off for the leader and government that started it. The cost of war is always higher than expected, and the rewards are few and in many cases there are no rewards at all. Given all that, a government would have to be exceptionally foolish to think that it could fix its domestic difficulties by starting a war.