US withdrawal causes NATO collapse – follow on

Are there any scenarios for dissolution of NATO? Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall consider this question in their essay “Ahead of the Curve: Anticipating Strategic Surprise”. They insist than in the future the fundamental strategic interests of the US and Europe will diverge. The Americans will not be willing to pay billions for the protection of rich European countries. The Europeans will refrain from participating in peacekeeping operations in places such Africa. Europe’s main goal will be to deter the rising power of America. The United States will withdraw their forces from Europe. The United Kingdom is suspicious of its continental allies and generally follows the United States. Consequently, without America and Great Britain, NATO will collapse. 24 The collapse of NATO may be a sequential result from several correlated events. They might include partisan actions from the U.S. leadership and responses from the European states that will increase political and military disparity. For instance, a reason for possible dissolution of NATO could be the difference between America's national interests and those of the European allies especially with regard to military interventions outside the Euro-Atlantic area. America is likely to feel frustrated by the lack of reciprocity, considering the fact that during the last seventy years the United States invested enormous funds in the reconstruction of the European continent. Americans might have some additional disappointments based on the probability that European partners will delay or will not implement the commitment to provide 2 percent of their GDP to mutual defense. Consequently, the probable European failure to commit to the common security may increase the financial responsibility and may raise the military burden on the United States. The latter may increase the level of dissatisfaction with NATO from U.S. citizens. The possibility of a continued lack of European investment in the area of defense will widen the technological gap and will affect the ability of Allied Forces to act as one entity. Conceived in this way, these factors combined with the traditional American rhetoric about isolationism may lead to the withdrawal of the United States from NATO. Canada without the American military machine will not be able to ensure the survivability of the transatlantic link, which means the effective disintegration of NATO. 25 Richard Jordan from the conservative website the Federalist asserts that the Alliance will crumble slowly and gradually. The author claims the world no longer needs the Cold War’s NATO. Furthermore, he insists that NATO has had a privilege to behave irrationally, there are no reasons for its existence, and there is no force, which might transform it. Nowadays the world is in a different paradigm–America is not willing to pay any price and bear any burden. The current Administration sees the world through the prism of realism, which general assumption is that each party acts only in their own narrow interests. Since the United States has a number of domestic political differences and external economic concerns, Washington does not want to invest resources and efforts to subsidize the luxurious European lifestyle. In five to ten years, the writer proclaims, Europe will experience a crisis, which Europeans will not manage to solve. In addition, Jordan thinks that, due to exhausted political patience the United States might not support Europe which ultimate result is a collapse of NATO.