(iffy) Space exploration risk polarization and monopolies.

While competition can lead to breakthroughs at unprecedented speeds, it can also lead to development and application of technologies under differing motivations that might not serve the widest range of stakeholders and society. Geopolitical tensions also thwart attempts at partnerships leading to the duplication of efforts and the rise of security concerns as major powers such as the United States, China, and Russia become more polarized. For example, in response to tensions over the war in Ukraine, Russia announced that it intends to quit the International Space Station after 2024 and will be building its own outpost. If Russia follows through, its collaboration with the United States and will likely continue in other ways, but these types of decisions, when fueled by geopolitical tensions on Earth, can threaten the stability of space operations for the detriment of everyone involved.

The likelihood is low for global agreement and coordination on every aspect of the emerging space economy. It would be naive to assume that economic, geopolitical, and social problems on Earth would disappear in the context of space. Yet, though these conflicts persist and may become even more complex, there are still opportunities for global coordination, albeit potentially requiring a different approach in response to this reality. For example, there are still areas of common interest among different partners that space technology can help with, such as developing of vaccines, tracking natural disasters, and assessing water quality. Some experts have suggested that anticipatory diplomacy, which has been used in the context of climate change and pandemic preparedness, could be a way forward that focuses on anticipating and mitigating worst-case scenarios. This could help reveal areas with a higher likelihood of collaboration and which thus could be more strategic to focus on going forward rather than attempting to find broad consensus which could ultimately stifle progress. This will be especially true now that there are more countries with competing interests involved.

The rise of private companies in space, while presenting major opportunities, also presents major risks. Right now, there is a lot of first-mover advantages as some space exploration and space technology applications are at the initial stages of development. There is thus a risk that private entities could establish monopolies on certain areas—for example broadband—whose incentives may not align with those of governments or society. This would make cooperation even more complex, especially as national borders on Earth may become arbitrary in the context of space. As ethical and regulatory frameworks continue to be developed, it will be critical that the private sector is included as a main voice among many stakeholders.