Carbon Dividend Neg - DDI 2023 BK

DDI BK—Carbon Tax Neg
Trade DA
1NC – trade DA
Shell
US-China trade high now - but cutting tariffs and having better diplomacy is key to relations
Spellman 7-10 (James David, is principal of Strategic Communications, LLC and comments on global economic issues for South China Morning Post. 07-10-2023 “Yellen’s visit to China brings new optimism for Sino-American relations” https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4088756-yellens-visit-to-china-brings-new-optimism-for-sino-american-relations/)//BH-NB//
Despite tensions between the superpowers, U.S.-China trade last year set a record at $630 billion. Figures show trade growing at an even faster pace over the last four months, with a 7 percent rise in U.S. exports, as imports from China declined 25 percent.
Whatever progress the superpowers can achieve over the next 16 months will be limited. That’s because Joe Biden will be hard-pressed by Republican challengers to stand up to their allegations that China threatens Americans’ jobs, privacy, values and futures. Biden knows “America First” rhetoric solidifies his core, blue-collar workers, and moves right-of-center voters into his camp in what will be a replay of the bitter and tight 2020 race. Criticism about Yellen’s three awkward “bows” to Vice Premier He Lifeng shows how trigger-ready Biden opponents are.
Given the inertia in U.S.-China relations, how can both build up from the new floor in the months ahead?
Restoring a measure of predictability and de-escalating the tone of tit-for-tat diplomacy is a mutual responsibility that must deepen quickly. Amid the many suspicions both must find common grounds for trust. The tensions have unsettled businesses and sidelined potential investments, a linchpin of economic growth.
More frequent and detailed contacts between U.S. and China counterparties represent another opportunity for progress. While neither agreed during Yellen’s visit on a formal process for another meeting before the 2024 elections, there are clearly commitments to talk more.
The first tests of the durability of improved U.S.-China relations lie in the management of two initiatives.
The first is the announcement, expected soon from President Biden, of “investment screens” that could block U.S. companies from investing in China in areas that would undermine U.S. national security to benefit China. The administration has faced substantial pushback from Wall Street companies and others over this.
The second pertains to the “301” tariffs that former President Donald Trump levied in 2018 on thousands of imports from China that were valued then at some $370 billion. These have put Biden in the crosscurrents of politics. While campaigning in 2020, he attacked the tariffs as adding costs for Americans, but after taking office he reversed himself. Yellen is reported to be lobbying internally to cut the tariffs. We may soon see the result of the 301 review and more exemptions by the U.S. Trade Representative.
Yellen was right to prioritize the urgent need for both nations to address the debt crisis of emerging market and developing countries. Both could have jointly urged multilateral institutions to work quickly on debt relief, so that these economies can shift resources away from debt service and toward ending severe food shortages and promoting sustainable development.
China hate’s BCA’s they’ll suffer too much
Stanway 21 (David, is a senior correspondent for industry and environment at Thomson Reuters. 07-26-2021 “China says EU's planned carbon border tax violates trade principles” https://www.reuters.com/business/sustainable-business/china-says-ecs-carbon-border-tax-is-expanding-climate-issues-trade-2021-07-26/)//BH-NB//
BEIJING, July 26 (Reuters) - China said on Monday the European Union's plan to impose the world's first carbon border tax will expand climate issues into trade in violation of international principles and hurt prospects for economic growth.
The European Commission this month outlined plans to impose a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), or CO2 tariff, on polluting goods from 2026, forcing some companies importing into the European Union to pay carbon costs at the border on carbon-intensive products such as steel.
"CBAM is essentially a unilateral measure to extend the climate change issue to the trade sector. It violates WTO principles ... and (will) seriously undermine mutual trust in the global community and the prospects for economic growth," said Liu Youbin, a spokesman of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment said at a media briefing.
He reiterated China's stance that each country's response to climate change should take into account its level of economic development, and said the CO2 tariff would severely harm the willingness and capability of countries to tackle the issue.
As the world's top manufacturer of industrial raw materials such as steel and cement, China could suffer the most from the border tariffs scheme, researchers at Tsinghua University’s Centre for Industrial Development and Environmental Governance said in a paper published in May.
Worsing Relations between China and the US leads to war
Wang 22 (Amber Wang is a reporter for the China desk and formerly for the New York Times, and focuses on Chinese politics and diplomacy. 11-4-2022 “Worsening China-US relations ‘raise risk’ of conflict in Asia-Pacific” https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3198426/worsening-china-us-relations-raise-risk-conflict-asia-pacific)//BH-NB//
A senior Chinese military analyst has warned that worsening relations between China and the US are raising the risks of a maritime conflict in the Asia-Pacific region.
Yao Yunzhu, an academic committee member at Tsinghua University’s Centre for International Security and Strategy, also said the rivalry between the two countries could lead to an arms race that would undermine regional security.
She was speaking on Thursday at the two-day Symposium on Global Maritime Cooperation and Ocean Governance in the southern Chinese island province of Hainan. Researchers from 20 countries and regions attended to discuss maritime affairs and global ocean governance around the South China Sea.
“The confrontation in Sino-US relations continues to rise, so it is difficult to ignore the possibility of a maritime military conflict,” Yao said.
“[This] may be triggered by frequent encounters and accidents between naval vessels and aircraft of the two countries, and may also be triggered by challenges to China’s core interests [by the US].”
Yao, a retired army major general, said both countries were unwilling to see such a conflict and maintained a strategic communication channel to manage and prevent crises.
“But to fundamentally eliminate these risks and maintain peace and maritime security in the Asia-Pacific, China and the United States need to increase mutual trust, improve relations, and cultivate a willingness to cooperate,” she said.
Yao said the risk of an arms race between the powers with the two largest defence budgets in the world – along with increased military activities including weapons testing and exercises – would adversely affect regional maritime security.
To promote peace in the South China Sea, the symposium called for closer cooperation between Beijing and Asean countries, and progress on the negotiations for a legally binding code of conduct for the strategic waterway, one of the busiest in the world.
The code of conduct is intended to implement the principles of the 2002 Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC), signed by China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations to provide a guideline for handling disputes.
Military tensions in the waterway have been growing between Beijing, which claims most of its waters, and Washington and its allies.
Extinction.
Williams 23 (Armstrong, is an American political commentator, entrepreneur, author, and talk show host. 02-16-2023 “United States is inching toward World War III with China” https://amsterdamnews.com/news/2023/02/16/united-states-is-inching-toward-world-war-iii-with-china/)//BH-NB//
The United States is inching toward World War III with China.
All the lights on the dashboard are flashing.
The pivot to Asia proclaimed by past Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.
Massive arms sales to Taiwan.
The United States Taiwan Defense Command in Taiwan.
The Quad with Japan, Australia, and India to encircle China.
The sale of nuclear-powered submarines to Australia and augmentation of U.S. Marine forces there.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s “in-your-face” gratuitous visit to Taiwan.
President Joe Biden’s repeated threats to attack China if it invades Taiwan.
Harsh economic sanctions against China indistinguishable from the United States economic strangulation of Japan before Pearl Harbor.
Secretary of State Rex Tillerson’s summons to deny China access to artificial islands in the South China Sea.
the Pentagon’s National Defense Strategy, released in October 2022, naming China as the greatest threat to the United States.
Nearly two centuries of humiliation of China by the West, beginning at least with the Opium War of 1842 to make Chinese drug addiction a western profit center. The United States followed with the Chinese Exclusion Act of 1882 and a prohibition on the naturalization of Chinese immigrants. The United States betrayed China during the post-World War I Paris Peace talks by surrendering Shandong Province to Japan. Secretary of State John Foster Dulles refused to shake the hand of Chinese Premier Zhou Enlai during the Geneva Conference to settle the future of Vietnam and gratuitously sneered that the two would only meet in a car crash.
Taiwan is the same distance from the Chinese mainland as Cuba is to the United States. During the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, we were willing to initiate war if necessary to compel the Soviet Union to remove tactical nuclear weapons from Cuba, including a blockade. Cuba had requested the missiles to deter a planned second United States invasion on the heels of the Bay of Pigs debacle. The USSR blinked and removed the nuclear weapons in exchange for a sotto voce agreement by the United States to remove Jupiter missiles from Turkey.
Today, the United States is a vastly greater existential threat to China than the Soviet Union’s presence in Cuba was to the United States in 1962. Why does anyone think China would react less strongly than the United States did in the Cuban Missile Crisis to the U.S. arming Taiwan to the teeth, repeatedly threatening war, organizing the Quad, strangling the Chinese economy, and treating the South China Sea as if it were the Gulf of Mexico? Why would the Chinese accept national security risks that the United States has shown it will not?
U.S. relations with China are combustible. Only a spark is necessary to ignite a conflagration that could lead to nuclear exchanges and threaten the species with nuclear winter and extinction.
Something similar happened before with Austrian Archduke Ferdinand’s assassination by Serb nationalist Gavrilo Princip on June 28, 1914. That gave birth to World War I, which witnessed 20 million deaths and 21 million wounded. World War III could be precipitated by a shoot-out over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands or the Scarborough Shoal/Huangyan Island.
A war involving the U.S. and China would probably metastasize. According to the Brookings Institution’s Michael O’Hanlon: “Neither Beijing nor Washington would accept defeat in a limited engagement. Instead, the conflict probably would expand horizontally to other regions and vertically, perhaps even to include nuclear weapons threats—or their actual use. It literally could become the worst catastrophe in the history of warfare.”
In recent years, U.S. wargames have generally shown China defeating the United States. One analysis concluded: “The overarching takeaway from participants in the war game: If China invades Taiwan, the Indo-​Pacific region will plunge into a broad, drawn-​out war that could include direct attacks on the U.S., including Hawaii and potentially the continental United States.”
If a war with China over Taiwan seems crazy, it’s because it is! We have no defense treaty with Taiwan. We have no diplomatic relations with Taiwan. It has no membership in the United Nations. It is within China’s traditional sphere of influence. It is more than 7,500 miles away from the United States. Its independence is a featherweight to our national security. If China annexed Taiwan, imitating our annexation of Hawaii in 1898, the annexation would not be an existential threat to the United States.
I can already hear the appeasement shouts of “Munich,” “Munich,” “Munich” from the multi-trillion-dollar military-industrial-security complex. But China is not the Third Reich, President Xi Jinping is not Adolf Hitler. Taiwan is not Czechoslovakia. And the Domino Theory implicit in the cry of “Munich” was discredited by our defeat by Vietnam. It has become a semi-ally of the United States in opposing China. And Japan and South Korea are fully capable of defending themselves against a Chinese invasion.President George Washington’s time-honored Farewell Address provides the path to extricate ourselves from a war with China over Taiwan: “The great rule of conduct for us in regard to foreign nations is in extending our commercial relations to have with them as little political connection as possible.”
2NC – trade DA
2NC – BCAs Bad
BCA’s cause trade disputes between China, India, and Russia – that turns climate and trade.
Dr. Julio Friedmann 21, a senior research scholar at the Center on Global Energy Policy, 07/29/2021, "Benefits and Risks of Border Carbon Adjustments," https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/publications/benefits-and-risks-border-carbon-adjustments-qa-julio-friedmann/recut ror
Q. What are the risks and concerns around a BCA?
A. BCAs can have undesirable knock-on effects on trade. Specifically, a BCA may lead to escalating trade differences or disputes, and nations impacted by a BCA can respond with retaliatory tariffs. These problems could lead to loss of trade, loss of jobs, and diplomatic tensions between countries. For example, several nations, including China, India, and Russia, have very high GHG intensities for exported goods, which could create tensions around climate deals or important issues beyond climate and energy, such as refugees or national security.
A separate question involves legal standing. It is unclear if BCAs, including those proposed in the EU and US, would survive a challenge in the World Trade Organization. Ultimately, the outcome would be sensitive to the specifics of the BCA’s design and implementation. Some nations have announced their intentions to mount challenges if a BCA is enacted. In general, a BCA could diminish interest in cooperation between nations, which is important to achieve success in global deep decarbonization.
And as with any new tariff, tax, or policy, there are concerns about design. Since no BCAs exist today, poor design could lead to problems with implementation and effectiveness, including in the failure to meet key goals (i.e., raising revenues or protecting jobs and critical sectors).
2NC – AT: plan solves DA
Doesn’t solve – it’s a straight turn to the AFF. Any risk of the link means you vote neg.
2NC – UQ – US-China trade high
US-China trade high now despite tensions – increasing diplomacy on economic growth is key to prevent conflict – Spellman.
US China Trade high now.
Chen 6-20 (Evelyn, is a CNBC Senior Correspondent, covering China’s economy and financial markets from Beijing. 06-20-2023 “As growth stalls for the U.S. and China, Blinken talked up economic ties in high-stakes Beijing trip” https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/21/blinken-talked-up-us-china-economic-ties-in-high-stakes-beijing-trip.html)//BH-NB//
In a press conference Monday that wrapped up his visit, Blinken noted record high trade between the two countries, and said the U.S. is “prepared to cooperate with China” in “macroeconomic stability,” among other areas of mutual interest.
China Trade at an all time high
Ching 6-28 (Nike, is VOA’s State Department Bureau Chief. 06-28-2023 “Blinken: US Seeks to Coexist Peacefully With China” https://www.voanews.com/a/blinken-us-seeks-to-coexist-peacefully-with-china-/7159127.html)//BH-NB//
STATE DEPARTMENT — The United States has to find a way to “coexist peacefully” with China amid intense competition, said U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Wednesday, noting that Washington is not economically “decoupling” from Beijing and that bilateral trade last year hit a record high.
Even if there is some tensions - they’re still expanding trade
Ching 6-28 (Nike, is VOA’s State Department Bureau Chief. 06-28-2023 “Blinken: US Seeks to Coexist Peacefully With China” https://www.voanews.com/a/blinken-us-seeks-to-coexist-peacefully-with-china-/7159127.html)//BH-NB//
Blinken’s remarks came ahead of U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s expected trip to Beijing in the coming weeks. He highlighted the fact that bilateral trade between the two countries continues to expand despite tensions over issues such as advanced semiconductors and Beijing’s persecution of Uyghurs.
“Our trade with China last year reached the highest level ever. We had more foreign direct investment going to China last year than any year since 2014,” said Blinken, adding U.S. export controls and sanctions on Chinese entities affect only a very small fraction of companies operating in China.
Trade between the U.S. and China remains strong now
Swanson 7/7 [Ana Swanson writes about trade and international economics for The New York Times. She previously covered the economy, trade and the Federal Reserve for The Washington Post. 7/7/23, ‘The Contentious U.S.-China Relationship, by the Numbers’, https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/07/business/economy/us-china-relationship-facts.html, The New York Times]
Trade relations
Despite the rising tensions, trade between the countries remains extremely strong. China is America’s third-largest trading partner, after Canada and Mexico.
U.S. imports of goods and services from China hit a record $563.6 billion last year. But the share of U.S. imports that come from China has been falling, a sign of how some businesses are breaking off ties with China.
China is also a major export market, with half of all soybeans that the United States sends abroad going to China. The U.S.-China Business Council estimated that U.S. exports to China supported nearly 1.1 million jobs in the United States in 2021.
2NC – AT: diplomacy remains
[AT: diplomacy overwhelms link]
Wrong – relations are on the brink now – including diplomacy.
Loh 4/28 [Matthew Loh is a breaking news reporter at Insider's Singapore bureau. He joined the team in June 2021, and mostly covers global politics, workplace trends, and public policy. 4/28/23, “Renowned China investor Ray Dalio says the US and China are on the brink of war, and that both sides are 'beyond the ability to talk'”, https://www.businessinsider.com/ray-dalio-us-china-the-brink-of-war-beyond-talking-2023-4, Insider]
The US and China are on the brink of war, warned billionaire and renowned China investor Ray Dalio.
Both sides are at severe risk of crossing each other's red lines, and diplomacy between them is clearly failing, Dalio wrote in a Thursday memo on LinkedIn.
"The United States and China are on the brink of war and are beyond the ability to talk," reads Dalio's grim message.
Dalio, who runs the biggest foreign hedge fund in China and has 40 years of experience investing in the country, said he penned his thoughts after recently meeting with policymakers, Chinese citizens, and China experts from around the world.
[AT: climate clubs = diplomacy]
But the AFF worsens diplomacy. McDarris et.al 21 (Anne McDarris, is the RFF’s media relations specialist and has a BA in environmental studies, University of North Carolina . Billy Pizer is Vice President for Research a

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